Were into March so its time to take a look at the top contenders for the KY Derby and the road to the Triple Crown. This years top three year olds are a solid bunch but seem a little behind last year's class. Last year at this time in the first Top Five list we had Five Fives as the number one contender and Mrs Bombastic as the first filly at HRP to be listed as a strong Derby contender in the Top Five. This year we have yet to have a triple digit figure run from any major Derby prep. However just because we haven't seen that does not mean we are lacking in talent it just means that no one has come forth and emerged as a dominant force. This also could change as these horses are still maturing and we still have time before the first Saturday in May for someone to step forth.

As of this past weekend it seems we have two at the top worthy of the number one position. 30wests Stables Flyflyfly and Paradise Stables Noble Warrior. Flyflyfly, the one time $7.500 claimer, was showing strong promise on the turf but his speed figures jumped up dramatically in the switch to the dirt three races back where he finished 2nd in the GR-1 CC Futurity at HOL. His subsequent wins in the GR-2 Sham Stakes and The GR-2 San Felipe victory solidified him as a major contender.

Noble Warrior began his career with five straight sprint races. He found the winners circle in four out of five times in those races including victories in the GR-2 Sanford Stakes at 6 furlongs and a win in the 7f GR-1 Hopeful Stakes both at Saratoga. His first venture at the distance was a lackluster performance in the GR-1 BC Juvenile. He then finished third in the GR-1 CC Futurity at a mile and one sixteenth running a 93 SRF. In his last start the GR-2 Fountain of Youth contested at 1mile and an Eighth distance his SRF speed figure improved to a 95. This is typically what you look for in a derby contender. You want to see an improvement in figures with distance or a horse with high figures to at least maintain a high figure as the race distances increase. 

A key factor is the step up from a mile and a sixteenth to the mile and an eighth distance. This seems to be what determines a horses ability to get the distance or his potential to get the distance. As I have said many times before, many horses can produce high figures or triple digit figures at a mile or a mile and a sixteenth race distance but step up to 9f and they cannot obtain that figure. So saying that based on what I've seen as of this week I give the nod and number one position to Noble Warrior. Flyflyfly has a good argument too and I could not argue against him but Noble Warrior has already run and won at the 9f distance.

Flyflyfly will go in the number two slot.

Number three will seem a surprise especially based on the explanation above. However I am giving the three spot to Crown Heights from the Barcelona Farms stable. Crown Heights has reeled off five straight wins including a win in the 1-1/16th mile CAC Juvenile and earned his first graded stakes win in the GR-2 Southwest Stakes at OP in his last start. That Southwest Stakes victory was very impressive. He faced a solid field that included derby contender Beafreaking Star. After stalking or pressing the pace he drew off in the end with ease to a four length victory earning a 96 SRF speed figure in the process. He seems to be a horse that is getting better, however he may be a little behind others in his training. You normally would like to see more distance races or seasoning under his belt by this stage and this was only a mile event. But he showed potential at two years old winning at the 8.5f distance. We will have to see how he responds to the added distances, if he continues to show improvement he could become a major player.

Number Four we have Risen Ruler from the Rouge River Stables. Risen Ruler is a multi-graded stakes winner having won the GR-2 Nashua at the mile distance earning a 95 SRF speed figure and looked strong in taking the 1-1/8th mile GR-2 Lewis Stakes in his last start at SA, his figure slightly regressed to a 92 but still gave a very good account of himself . He is another who has a 9f victory which is a big advantage.

Number Five  goes to yet another in the Rouge River Stables barn and for the second year in a row a filly in the Top Five, Mai Mia Bambina the multi graded stakes winner. She has won five of seven lifetime starts which includes wins in the GR-1 Spinaway and the GR-1 CC Futurity where she beat three of the top four contenders. She has one defeat competing against her gender in the BC Juvenile Fillies where she finished three legths back as the favorite, and has faced the boys twice with one victory that win in the CC Futurity. Her last start was somewhat of a lackluster performance in the GR-3 Holy Bull and lays some questions on her if she is ready for the derby trail. The question can she regain her two year old form? It is still uncertain if she will pursue the Derby or go face those of her sex which is quite formidable with Mels Silver Crush and Roundheel amongst the leading three year old fillies. But based on her accomplishments against the boys she deserves an earned a top five position.

SRF TOP FIVE

#1  Noble Warrior

#2  Flyflyfly

#3  Crown Heights

#4  Risen Ruler

#5  Mai Mia Bambina(f)

Other contenders: Eight Alarm Fire, Watch 4 The Sailor, Alien Drive, Halfling, Plucky Mash, Jamaican Bolt.

(Note: SRF Top Five is put together by Mike La Rosa, Editor in Chief of the SRF and is not a consensus of the SRF staff)

Road to the Derby

								SRF
DATE	TRK	Grade	Purse	Race Name	Dist	Sfc	Time	SR	Winner/Place
3/12/2011	TAM	GR-2	$350.00	TAM Derby	1-1/16m	fst	1:43.77	96	EightAlarmFire, MLK
3/12/2011	SA	GR-2	$250.00	San Felipe St	1-1/16m	fst	1:44.46	96	Flyflyfly, Alexithymia
3/5/2011	AQU	GR-3	$250.00	The Gotham	1-1/16m	fst	1:43.58	94	Tropical Ldge, Star Bet
3/5/2011	TP	NG-3y	$100.00	BtglMemrial	1-1/16m	fst	1:44.90	92	NY Minute, Endorsemnt
2/26/2011	GP	GR-2	$400.00	FountainOfYth	1-1/8m	fst	1:50.31	95	Noble Warrior, Drvitlkyoustlit
2/26/2011	GP	GR-2	$150.00	Hutcheson St	7f	fst	1:23.97	94	Silent Rebllion, ComeOnVan
2/21/2011	OP	GR-3	$250.00	Southwest St	1mi	fst	1:36.76	96	Crown Hgts, Beafrking Star
2/20/2011	SA	GR-2	$150.00	San Vicente	7f	fst	1:23.78	93	Iditarod Diadme, Savabeel
2/19/2011	FG	GR-2	$300.00	Risen Star	1-1/16m	fst	1:43.81	92	Alien Drve, Jmcn Bolt
2/12/2011	SA	GR-2	$250.00	Lewis Stakes	1-1/8m	fst	1:50.40	92	Risen Ruler, OutofthePark
2/12/2011	GG	GR-3	$200.00	EL Camino	1-1/8m	fst	1:50.92	96	Wtch4 Sailor, Willow Grove
2/12/2011	TAM	GR-3	$225.00	Davis Stakes	1-1/16m	fst	1:43.84	95	Donative, Fnd duLacRvr
2/5/2011	AQU	NG/3y	$100.00	Whirlaway	1 1/16m	fst	1:48.89	91	Thrilling Star, Rock Rules
1/30/2011	GP	GR-3	$400.00	Holy Bull	1mi	fst	1:37.14	93	Laffin Hyena, Jamcn Bolt
1/22/2011	FG	GR-3	$100.00	LeComte St	1m70y	fst	1:42.20	90	Montepulciano,ChipIn Birdie
1/22/2011	OP	NG/3y	$100.00	Smarty Jones	1mi	fst	1:38.18	92	Fnd du LacRvr, Jaxo
1/15/2011	SA	GR-3	$100.00	Sham St	1-1/16m	fst	1:43.78	97	Flyflyfly, BeafrkingStar
1/15/2011	GG	NG/3y	$100.00	CA Derby	1-1/16m	fst	1:45.00	93	Alien Drive, Sabers Edge