The third leg of the Triple Crown has always been my favorite, even if at times it seems almost moot with no Triple Crown on the line(at least in RL). Run on the only track in North America where a 12 furlong race on dirt requires no doubling back, the Belmont Stakes is not just a test of quality and endurance, it is a test of guts and strategy. It is a no man's land, a quarter mile where none of these three year olds have ever gone and where few will go again.
In the short history of the TC here at HRP, no Derby or Preakness winner has won the Belmont. In fact, only one horse, Fuji Ninja, has won as many as two of the three. Here's the record so far:
Derby Winners:
2004 Fuji Ninja - 6th in the BEL
2005 Sleepless Nights - 3rd in the BEL
2006 Dani Dauntless - 10th in the BEL
PRK Winners:
2005 Real Bull - 8th in the BEL
2006 Dark Crown - 2nd in the BEL
That's not to say that neither Fusion nor Round Trip Ticket can win the Belmont on Saturday, it just means history is against them. A pattern seems to be emerging and all horse players love patterns and dosages and anything superstitious. But the best thing about patterns and dosages and probabilities is when someone beats the odds. It could happen any time - even this year.
You can't really say that Fusion was a surprise in the Derby, although many, myself included, had written him off because of the far outside post position. He overcame that and an off track to win convincingly. On the other hand, Round Trip Ticket at 12-1 could be considered something of a surprise. But then the Preakness at HRP seems to be the place for upsets and long shots. Remember Real Bull in 2005?
If neither the Derby nor the PRK winner can break the pattern (it's too early to call it a jinx) of no repeats in the TC, there are several strong contenders to take the third jewel. Like Great Kalculation, LS Derby winner by seven lengths. He bypassed both of the other TC races like The Governor, winner of the 2004 Belmont. Then there's Timepiece, the brilliant two-year old champion and early favorite for the Derby who is looking for redemption here. And what about Acquisitions? He won the G2 Peter Pan by a remarkable 10 lengths and scored a 103 SRF.
It's a full field of sixteen.
1 Round Trip Ticket
Sire: Fish Stick
Dam: Lover Sue (loverboy)
Owner/Breeder: skyhigh stables
As in the PRK, which he won by a length over Timepiece, Round Trip Ticket draws the inside post. He's no speedball, so don't expect him to shoot to the lead, though he did wire the field in the Pasco Stakes in January, but that was at 7 furlong, not 12. He's had two workouts at a mile in the last week, both sub-1:38, so he looks fit and ready to go.
Skyhigh: "Round Trip Ticket has a great chance and post 1 should work out great for him like in the PRK. He is the type of horse post really means nothing since he works his way thru traffic good. Being an even longer race post 1 should help him save ground and be ready for a good stretch run."
2 The Big Lebowski
Sire: Bagdad Note
Dam: Wasted Years
Owner/Breeder: Unreal Racing
His last win came in the Winners Foundation Stakes in December. He put in a good run in the Rebel Stakes to finish second, then finished fourth just a length back in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby. His last start came in the Peter Pan where he finished second by ten. The pace in that race was faster than he's used to and he fell too far behind. Even so, he finished second in a field of seven. His SRF numbers are solid and consistent.
3 Great Kalculation
Sire: Great White Shark
Dam: Miss Calculation
Owner/Breeder: Scott Stables
Won the Grade 3 LS Derby by seven last out, scoring a 102 SRF on a good track. He won the Swale earlier this year, but when he finished seventeen lengths back in the LA Derby, he was taken off the Derby trail. If his last start is any indication, he is an improving gelding and should be a serious contender. Worked a mile in 1:37 1/5 before the win in the LS Derby and his last work at BEL was a mile in 1:38 1/5. Does his best running up front, so he may be the early leader, and with history favoring front runners, he could go all the way.
4 Penal Colony
Sire: Fancy Dancer
Dam: Frigid B
Owner/Breeder: GlueFactory
Penal Colony set the pace in the Derby and held on to finish a vry close 2nd. He won the Grade 3 Rebel wire-to-wire by three, then finished second in the Arkansas Derby. Penal Colony is another one who likes to be up front early, but he got shuffled back to 8th in the PRK and was unable to make up any significant ground, although he did get up for fifth place. He's been as consistent and competitive as any horse in the field, but he'll need a good trip and some racing luck to win here.
GlueFactory: "It depends on whether the gods have the sponge in or out for the race."
5 The Texas Kidd
Breeder: Double D Stables
Owner: Thinken Stables
The Texas Kidd was undoubtedly the surprise of the Derby. It wasn't so long ago he was claimed for $50, and he came within a head of winning the big one. Another strong contender who's been close but can't seem to get to the wire first. His last win came at CRC in the Grade 3 Tropical Park Derby in January. Since then, he hadn't been out of the money until the PRK where he finished ninth. The key for The Texas Kidd is to stay out of traffic, no easy task in a field of sixteen.
Thinken Stables: "He had a horrible trip in the PRK. He was shuffled back to last and when he tried to make his run he was blocked. Hopefully he will rebound this Saturday. He has been training well and a muddy track would really help."
6 Fire One Up
Sire: Tenesse Jed
Dam: Swisher Sweet
Owner/Breeder: Double D Stables
After a big win in the Grade 1 BG Stakes at KEE, Fire One Up hasn't faired too well in the TC so far. He likes to be up front early, but was unable to get there in either the Derby from the 13 hole or the PRK from the 10. He'll probably like the 6 better. He's been working well on turf coming up to this race. Don't count him out, but he will need a top effort to get there first.
7 Just Too Blue
Sire: Blue Hootch
Dam: Katrinas Wrath
Breeder: Team 7 Illusions
Owner: Serenity Stables
It's hard to get excited about a filly going 1 1/2 mile on dirt against colts and geldings, even a very special filly like Just Too Blue. She spent the first year of her career knocking around in high level claimers until she was taken off Lasix in February. Since then, she's turned into a racing machine, winning four stakes in a row. Distance isn't an issue, nor is weather. She won the Grade 1 KY Oaks on a track listed as good. But she finished ten lengths back in the PRK, her first start against males. As good as she is, she's got her work cut out for her.
8 Chien Ming Wang
Sire: Cool Breeze
Dam: Wang Dang Doodle
Owner/Breeder: Australia Wide
Another claimer made good, this gelding won the Santa Anita Derby in impressive come from behind style and earned a 102 SRF for the effort. But he was unable to repeat in the Derby or the PRK. He'll be ridden here by G Gomez for the first time since he broke his maiden at HOL in December. Working very well. He'll need to avoid traffic if he's going to have a chance in a field this size.
Australia Wide: "Chien is his own worst enemy. He's run into traffic in both TC races thus far and although not a winning possibility in either he would of finished much closer with clear running.
9 Fusion
Sire: Hold The Spirit
Dam: Babe
Owner/Breeder: Eastern Equine
After an impressive victory in the Derby, Fusion finished the PRK thirteen lengths behind the winner. With back-to-back victories in the Risen Star and the Lanes End, he looked good for the Derby until he drew that far outside post. He was able to overcome it and he is in much better position here. History says he won't win. No Derby winner has ever won the Belmont. But it's a very short history and this is a very good colt.
10 Odelay
Sire: Double Trouble
Dam: Pasaje de Vieques
Owner/Breeder: Spinetingling
What a difference gelding made in this three year old! And not in a good way. Gelding is supposed to be either beneficial or benign, but Odelay's performance took a serious nose dive in the first two legs of the TC. Was it the gelding or maybe the added distance? It's hard to say, but he didn't look at all like the same horse that wired the field in the 1 1/8 mile Grade 2 Remsen or scored a 101 SRF winning the Grade 2 Lewis Stakes. He's going to have to get his Remsen/Lewis Stakes groove back to be competitive in this field.
11 Timepiece
Sire: Time Clock
Dam: Kid Joe
Owner/Breeder: Serenity Stables
Of the four Serenity Stables entrants, Timepiece has to be the power house and his best hope for getting home first. The juvenile champ looked unbeatable coming up to the Derby with back to back wins in the HOL Futurity and the LA Derby. But when the Lasix came off in the FL Derby, he finished third behind Acquisitions and The Texas Kidd. Timepiece was not invincible after all. He ran in the Derby without Lasix and came in ten lengths behind Fusion. Lasix went back on for the PRK and he looked much more like his old self again, taking second by just a length. With Lasix back on for the Belmont, he just might get it done this time.
12 Medalist
Sire: Robbie
Dam: Stay Hungry
Breeder: Panda Stables
Owner: Serenity Stables
The third of Serenity's four entries is possibly the most perplexing. Although she is a talented filly, in ten starts she has never won beyond a mile against other fillies. She tried to stretch out in her last two starts but could do no better than 4th and 5th. Her last mile work went in 1:39, and that seems to be about par for her. She won the Grade 1 Las Virgenes Stakes at a mile in 1:38.5. She's going to have to do better than that to compete here.
13 Flash
Sire: Gone In A Flash
Dam: Spirit of the Hare (Raining Spirit)
Owner/Breeder: Serenity Stables
The fourth entry for Serenity Stables is Flash. He looks like a rabbit but he doesn't fade like a rabbit. He went to the lead in a flash in the AR Derby and held it to the wire, winning by a head over Penal Colony. Same story in the PRK, except that he couldn't hang on to the wire. But after setting a very honest pace, he only gave two lengths to Round Trip Ticket and Timepiece. He could be the pacesetter again, and with the BEL favoring front runners, he just might be there at the wire.
14 Set Sail Sinbad
Sire: Sinbads Power
Dam: Look Out (Uncle Petrika)
Owner/Breeder: Power Racing
This colt has had some ups and downs, but he's won on dirt and turf and at distances from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 mile. He turned in a very respectable performance in the PRK to finish 4th after trailing by as many as 13 lengths. He usually likes to be much closer than that, but he's got a strong stretch kick that could have him driving while others are tiring in a marathon like the Belmont. If he can stay a little closer in the early going, he could be there at the wire.
15 Acquisitions
Sire: The Eleven
Dam: Silent Clair (Silent Explosion)
Owner/Breeder: Fairy Tale Ranch
After finishing 14th in the Derby in the mud, Acquisitions took the Peter Pan route to the Belmont and it turned out to be a brilliant move for the colt. He scored big, winning by 10 lengths with a 103 SRF. That gives him the advantage of a race over the track, and Acquisitions seems to love Belmont. He came from behind to win the Grade 1 FL Derby in his last prep race before the Derby. His time for that race was a full second slower than his winning time in the Peter Pan. If he runs back to that performance, he will be very tough here.
16 Private Bob
Sire: Private Australian
Dam: Power Queen Bob (Spongebobsquarepants)
Owner/Breeder: skyhigh stables
The second half of the skyhigh entry is almost as perplexing as the filly entrants. In 17 starts, he has never won beyond 6 furlongs. His last mile work went in 1:42. He's never won a graded stake. He's never scored an SRF higher than 95. He has the early speed to get to the lead, but don't look for him to hold it for 1 1/2 mile.
No BEL winner at HRP has come from farther back than 2nd. Look for Flash and Great Kalculation to go out and duel for the lead. Penal Colony, The Texas Kidd and Fire One Up have the speed to be close as well. But I'm not sure they can hang on to the end. I think the closers may defy history and the final furlong should be one to remember.
Picks:
Timepiece
Round Trip Ticket
Acquisitions
