July 10, 2009
Although it is certainly not as popular or well-known as the Queens Plate Stakes, the Prince Of Wales Stakes does have its place in racing history and as the second jewel of the Canadian Triple Crown, it has been the home to a number of high-profile winners since its origin in 1929. New Providence was the first major winner in 1959 and in the past 50 years, numerous champions of both the filly and colt variety have proven the best at the Fort Erie oval including Norcliffe, Overskate, Runaway Groom, With Approval, Izvestia, the immortal Dance Smartly, Peteski, Wando and A Bit O Gold. Although there have only been two runnings at HRP, both winners became $1,000.000 earners with Rafiki in 2007, who added a pair of Grade III victories later on in his season and at the age of four, and Promissory Note in 2008, who came in with a victory in the Queens Plate Stakes three weeks earlier and most recently added the Grade II Suburban at BEL to his $1400.000+ bankroll. On Sunday afternoon, another Queens Plate winner will try to double up as Rancho Ruler looks for his second victory in a row and in his wake stands three recent allowance runners who are hoping to step up and take a huge chunk of the $500.000 purse.
1-Lake Frontage-SCRATCHED
2-Rancho Ruler (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Australia Wide / Jockey-R J Albarado)
Rancho Ruler was sent postward as the deserving favourite in the recent Queens Plate Stakes and did not disappoint with a wire-to-wire victory going the classic 1 ¼ mile distance and all indications point to an even better effort from the sophomore colt after a powerful one-mile workout at LS back on June 29. After breaking off at a solid clip, he quickened around the far turn more than his workout prior to the Plate and finished more than a fifth of a second faster, which shows that he is none the worse for wear and could be a monster in waiting. R J Albarado hops aboard once again and he does not have to face anything near to the caliber of rival he faced at WO, making him a true favourite that should be less than 1-2 come raceday.
Key Races-Grade III LS Derby, Grade I
Queens Plate Stakes
Analysis-Looks like a standout in this small field
Fair Odds-1/2
3-Out To Kill (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Australia Wide / Jockey-M C Berry)
A maiden claiming winner over the turf at SA and a recent allowance winner over state-bred company in his last, Out To Kill looks like a solid threat for second with his improving efforts and has proven that he can handle an extended distance over the main track. Another who has shipped up from LS to owner Australia Wide, he might be better suited for the turf and is using this as a prep for the upcoming Breeders Stakes at WO; still, his speed ratings in the mid-90s make him a threat for a rally behind his front running stablemate. While he might not be in the same league at Rancho Ruler, he gets a middle post to work with and if things fall his way, he could very easily complete the exacta and double his earnings in his 11th lifetime start.
Key Races-WO Allowance
Analysis-Another LS invader that might be able to get a big piece
Fair Odds-4/1
4-Blue Suede Shoes (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Canadian Racing / Jockey-G K Gomez)
Of the two entries from owner Canadian Racing, Blue Suede Shoes seems to have the more potential at the 1 3/16 mile distance and that ability might come into play if the pace up front is contested between him and the heavy favourite. Although he used a stalking tactic in both of his victories to date, he has been able to show speed in the past and that could prove to be a detriment to Rancho Ruler if he wants to go on the lead and while that might not be the best chance for him to win, it could set things up for his stablemate if he is good enough. Like all of the Canadian Racing runners, he has trained at RP for this engagement and trained slightly slower than his rival, so look for him to contest the early fractions and give it up if the pace is a little too quick.
Key Races-WO Allowance
Analysis-Speed presence that might not have the legs
Fair Odds-10/1
5-Limp Bizkit (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Canadian Racing / Jockey-J R Velazquez)
Much like Blue Suede Shoes, Limp Bizkit comes in off a runner-up effort in allowance company but his last start was a sprinting effort on the lawn and he is being asked to transfer his early speed to a much longer distance on a surface that has provided him with mixed results. His debut at LAD was dismal but he rebounded with a solid maiden win over the FG main track in an even final time and while his last effort resulted in a career-best speed rating of 93, he will need to show marked improvement to contend with rivals that has already cracked the triple digits. Prepped at RP alongside his stablemates, he was slightly better on the turf as expected and that really does not translate to main track form, making him better than his stablemate on paper but a notch below the duo from Australia Wide.
Key Races-FG MdSpWt
Analysis-Prefers turf and might be using this as a prep
Fair Odds-8/1
Overall
It is tough to imagine an easier event for Rancho Ruler to pad his bankroll but the Queens Plate Stakes winner is facing only three allowance-caliber runners in the Prince Of Wales and should have an easy time of it going this distance, especially with inside speed and no real quality pace pressure. Stablemate Out To Kill looks to be the logical second choice as a possibility of upsetting if the pace is outrageously quick but many of these will be preparing for other races on the WO schedule including the Breeders Stakes coming up over the WO grass.
Prediction
Win-Rancho Ruler (1/2)
Place-Out To Kill (4/1)
Show-Limp Bizkit (8/1)
Triple T Racing J
