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Any TC Talent in This Years KY Jockey Club?
By
McDuffy
Nov 24, 2011,
10:29:44 AM
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Saturday November 26th, 2011 Churchill Downs Race #5 Post: 14:00
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CD 5 KY Jockey Club ( Gr. II )
$150.000 For Two Year Olds Mile and a Sixteenth Dirt
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The male juvenile graded stakes campaign comes to a close here at CD this weekend with the running of the ninth annual Gr. II KY Jockey Club event. While the Gr. I CC Futurity will be the final major juvenile race over at HOL a week before Christmas for a larger $750.000 purse, this event has been a proving ground for many sophomores the following season. After all, the KY Derby is held over this very footing and if a horse has a preference for this track, it could payoff next season come Triple Crown time.
2005 winner of this event Dani Dauntless ( Serenity Stables ) would capture this title by two lengths, then enter the KY Derby as a 15-1 shot and make a mounting charge to the wire to win by a half a length over Fuji Stables Dark Crown, who would go on to win the PRK Stakes and finish runner-up in the BEL Stakes. As for Dani Dauntless, he would go on to win the Gr. I HOL Derby after a failed attempt in the BC Classic.
Others who would show some life the following season in the Derby would be 08 winner Western Red Cedar ( Whitewater Stables ) who would place fourth in the Derby after falling back to fifteenth early on, and go fifth in the PRK Stakes after trailing early. Both those events went over a muddy track. Last years winner Jamaican Bolt would attempt the Derby this season and would also be in sixteenth for the opening half mile, then close to within two lengths in fourth at the wire. This effort as well came over an off track as the conditions were sloppy come post-time.
Eight different owner/trainers have claimed this event, while jockey M Guidry has been the only jockey to win this event three straight. The event record time was set in 2007 by Merciful Mercinary ( Zz Equine Racing ) in a final time of 1:42.82. Surprisingly, M Guidry has only seen six starts this season, and is available at CD this weekend.
So lets take a look at this seasons seven entries and see if we will see a Triple Crown contender in the group;
Has earned three victories in four starts this season, winning a restricted Alw41/N2L event at PID going a mile, then in his most recent try he won an Alw47/N1X race going seventy yards longer. The distance today shouldnt be a problem for this black colt, but this will be the first time he will leave his home state. Has been working over this surface in the morning and has posted a couple of 58 and change efforts in prep. Part of a tight group of four based on Speed Figures, and this will be his first stakes try. Potential.
Has been away for sixty plus days since his effort in the KY Cup Juvenile where he was the frontrunner throughout most of that mile and a sixteenth affair, only to miss by a half a length in fourth to one who has comeback to finish sixth last weekend in the DED Jackpot. Has been forced to work over off track surfaces in the morning here and that could either be a plus, or throw off his efforts here. Should be out front once again and hopefully he will stay around for a share.
A late bloomer amongst this group of runners. Broke his maiden back in June at MNR winning by an impressive five lengths in first asking, then returned in late September at RET for an Alw18/N1X where he would miss by a length in fifth. Has only seen five and a half furlongs in both those events and this will be his first attempt at going long, and also taking a major step up in class. Will need one to judge even though his morning work at WO of 1:11and four handily this past Monday is adequate. Looking elsewhere today.
After taking four tries to break his maiden, it seems this bay gelding needed to go long an over the dirt to find his style of racing. Came back from his maiden victory to compete in the Gr. III Iroquois going a mile, and he and Champion Prospector ( Riggins Racing ) were charging late to the line, and he would finish second by a head at some 17-1 odds. Definitely is a horse that like to run on late going long, and should get some speed to run at here, so watch for him to shine late. Contender.
Has won two of four starts this season, both coming in recent races. Earned his maiden win at CRC in mid August, then went on to win an Alw47/N1X race at PHA twenty days ago by three quarters of a length, as the Lasix was added to help aid in the longer mile and a sixteenth race. Does gain five pounds over his last victory and a recent mile handily work over at AQU on Sunday could have been a bit sharper. Look for a fringe effort here.
Trainer decided to scratch this bay colt out of last weekends DED Jackpot race and send him here to do battle. Has been struggling to earn his second victory since his maiden win, but has not been shy at what company he has decided to compete against. Finished third in the Gr. II Futurity in early July, and his most recent race on October first, he would close to within two lengths in the NY Breeder Futurity at six panels. The distance is still untested, but a lighter field here should have him picking up a payout. In the mix.
His two most recent events have gone at a mile, with some keen results. Won an OpClm16/N2X-N race in early Setember, then competed with another runner in this field in the Gr. III Iroquois where he would place third some three quarter of a lengths out. That event did have a slower final quarter of 26 seconds, so that left alot of room for closers. Will need to be on his toes today, and may very well be keeping Out For Destiny in his sights down the lane. Exotic play.
Duffers Picks
4-Out For Destiny.......Dirt and distance plays right into his running style
5- Blamemeofcourse..Recent victory at this distance should have him close.
6- Kortright.................Level of competition must earn him some respect today.
Upsetter- Street Cred
From trackside
I'm Mc.D.
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