We might as well take this from the top, and until he is beaten, I'll keep looking at Half Spirit - and I truly believe you have to. Hindsight is 20-20, and I think the poor showing in the Ark Derby (GII) was nothing more than a bounce. He just didn't run his normal race ; didn't seem himself - heck, even the trainer said he "...didn't give him a chance that day...", and the trainers that will admit that are few and far between. There is obviously a chemistry between the big gray and T Thompson - they are just hitting on all cylinders together. Now, drawing the rail post position, with a horse that is void of speed to his outside, look for him to get away cleanly, stay off of the early pace and in the words of his trainer "...Pray that Saturday night we have a Triple Crown riding on the Belmont...".

If we are going to talk about the good trips some horses have had and could have again, let's talk about one that didn't exactly have the best trip at CD. That would be Central Block Party - while talking to the trainer last week, the hot-walker had the big chestnut in the shed-row and said without the big check through the turn and again in the lane "...he would have won..." - and he didn't seem pleased about it. Granted, twenty horses and a mile and a quarter add up to making your own good trip, but he did have a ton of excuse that day. Look for a better path today, and he could be the one, in the end.

Staying in the same vein of second place, we have to keep an eye on the place-horse from the KY Derby (GI), Echo Wave. Although he has drawn the far outside gate, note that a similar bit of mis-fortune came his way in the BG Stakes (GI) at KEE back in Apr. Again, proving that he has a ton of talent and a heaping spoonful of tactical speed, he just missed that day - very similar to his Derby effort. Don't you have to believe that sooner or later, the gods are going to finally shine down on this one and get him around such set-backs? This fine colt is about three lengths from having a bank that J P Getty would be proud of - but, that's why we call it racing - some days are roses - some days are thorns...today, it's all about the Black-eyed Susan.

Horses that may be over-bet - Wild Bill, Power Of Sinbad, Misterkatesmith

Willie's Gree Card - Longshot Special - Central Block Party

Getting to the actual pace and trip scenario for this one, the speed seems to come from new-comer Tough Test, along with Wild Bill (since his stable mate is an off-the-pace specialist), Power Of Sinbad and perhaps Hidden Scriptures. I expect Half Spirit to right in the early mix as well, Misterkatesmith, Echo Wave and Stiletto Choice. Most of the others are either looking to drop back or may not have the tactical efforts to stay up with this bunch. I think we can expect Central Block Party to look for a nice spot, clear of traffic, but still in more of an off-the-pace approach, then Gold War Paint either staying back to make a late move or if he does not fire, it will be his spot to rest.

Look for things to get interesting as they go into the far turn - they always do here at PIM - and again when they come out of the turn and head down the lane. At that point, I'm looking for Half Spirit to be right there, along with Central Block Party - who I would expect a little bit early shake-up from. Echo Wave will be finding gears and I think Wild Bill can be a factor in the late going of this, as well.

When the get down to the wire, I expect the TC to still be alive - I think Half Spirit will once again find the heart and the legs to hold on for the win. Central Block Party will battle him all of the way to the wire, with Echo Wave right with that one... There will be a huge crowd, here in Baltimore - and with that... "Come and see the Show!"

Here's the field -

  1   Half Spirit  G c   Half Life - Lady Spirit                13   6   0   3    $1,754.380

br - JHamilton (NY)    own - Buckeyebred                                         T J Thompson

Sent off at 40-1 odds in the KY Derby, the big gray scampered off in the early stages of the run down the lane and held off the late contenders while setting a new track record in the effort. Using OP as a base to prepare for the TC, the colt has been coupled with T J Thompson and other than what can only be looked at as a "bounce" in the ARK Derby (GII), the pair have danced every other dance to perfection. We all know how difficult the job is - and we all love to see how it plays out. The am gallop over the course was stellar and Buckeyebred reports that he "...couldn't ask for a better breeze." The guns are loaded and I'm expecting another huge effort.

  2   Gold War Paint   CH c   Brittannicus - Illustrated Dream   10   2   1   0   $665.440

br - War Paint (CA)     own - Angelos Stable                                                           E S Prado

One of the two new-faces from the KY Derby, and part of a "two-horse montage" from Angelos Stable (Wild Bill being the other half), but, I'm just not sure what the game plan is with him. His big win, and only win other than his maiden victory, came in the 2yo Juv BC Turf, where he came from far back on a soft course. His main-track efforts have been less than trhilling, he is 0-for-3 this year, not earning a single dime. He does not have the speed to be a "rabbit", his gallop over the course was nothing to write home about (3rd of 3 for the day) - ok, enough beathing him up. I just can't see it.

  3   Power Of Sinbad   B c  Sinbads Power - Power Queen   16  5  6  2   $1,140.410

br - skyhigh stables (KY) own - skyhigh stables                                                  T C Baze

He came into the KY Derby with all of the hope in the world. After a solid spring, although he did not win a race, his efforts were spot-on and it looked like he might be at his best at just the right second... and, he did lead them for part of the way. However, when the money was on the line, he folded like a cheap suit and ended up ninth, some ten lengths back. At this point, that seems to be his MO - lead or stay close and then spit it out when they money is on the line. He could certainly use his tactical speed on the tight turns here at PIM, but I think he may be in for another long afternoon. It may have been better to not give him a breeze over the track - the time off may have been more of a benifit.

  4   North Of The Border B g I Am Canadian - Crs Wildkimstogie 13  3  3  0   $512.730

br - C. R. Racing (KY) own - Calia Stable                                                                 G K Gomez

I was absolutely shocked by the lack of effort by this one in the KY Derby. After being gelded in Mar, he came out the first time back from that "cut" and beat a very good field to take down the BG Stakes (GI) at KEE. I was more shocked that the betting public sent him off at 47-1 in the first leg of the TC, and he ran just like his odds - poor. Today, the pilot is changed - he has Gomez in the irons - but I don't think that is enough to get him back on-stride. He did have a decent 5f blow-out on the 12th, but I just can not see him pulling it off today.

  5   Date With Destiny    B c   AG - AG                        11  4  0  0   $458.460

br - 5 A Racing (CA) own - 5 A Racing                                           E Castro

This one does have one thing going for him that nobody else has - he has won at today's distance. His only race of recent history was the Holly Bull (GIII) at GP, and he scored by a half-length that day, going the odd mile and three sixteenths distance. I guess if you are looking for an angle, you have one - I think there needs to be more than that. He does not show a published workout, and like some of the others, the rest may have done him some good...but not enough.

  6   Generalmajor  CH c   Hennesay - Drum Majorette   11  3  2  2   $770.290

br - Jerry Garcia Racing (NY)   own - Jerry Garcia Racing                                    E M Coa

We have yet another that has not won a single race this year, although he does have a pair of seconds in major prep races - the San Felipe (GII) and the Ill Derby. The trainer is going back in time a bit, and has requested the services of E Coa - who does show a string of GI placings on this one's back - all during his 2yo campaign. He did get past a group of horses late in the KY Derby, but I'm thinking it was passing tired animals, vs. making up ground. He also does not have a posted work - but does the addition of Coa make this one a bit more interesting?

  7    Hidden Scriptures B c Hemmeneutical - Story Book  15   4   5  1   $590.020

br - Hearts of Steel (KY) own - Hearts Of Steel                                         C S Nakatani

Alot of people had him circled as the one to beat two weeks ago, and to be honest, he really didn't have alot of excuses. He was clear of most traffic, and had a clear bead on them - but, when asked to get going, he had nothing and lost a bit of ground in the late going. We know that the barn was not happy with the ride from Prado, and he has been displaced by C Nakatani, who has been the go-to-guy for most of his races. Will the reuniting get this one back into the picture? He did have a 7f gallop in the slop a few days back, so he should be fit.

  8   Tough Test  B c  Power Shock - Power Exam    13  5  3  2    $573.100

br - Power Racing (KY) own - Power Racing                                    H A Karamanos

The other member of the "new-face" club - and this one is an interesting proposition. After a win in the Ill Derby (GII) and a solid placing in the Coolmore Lexington (GII), this one chose to stay home for the Derby, and now re-surfaces in Baltimore. The time off certainly could help him - there is nothing like a fully-loaded weapon - and he is handled by a "local" jock that certainly knows his way around the grounds, and a nearby win (at LRL). I think he will see a ton of play, and he could be a serious threat in here.

  9   Stiletto Choice B c Reasonfortheblues - Sexy Stiletto    13   5  3  0   $561.150

br - KC Racing (WV) own - KC Racing                                                        S X Bridgmohan

After having a very solid spring and getting a check in every start this season, the KY Derby was a day that he'd probably like to forget. Void of his early lick and just passing a few tired ones toward the late stages, it was not his usual effort. But, did the 20-post cause him to use more of his tactical speed than he would have liked, still leaving him wide into the turn and then not having alot left? I think that very well could have been the story - and, I look for a much better effort here today. The mile gallop here was a bit of a surprise, but it was early enough that he should be fully recharged. A switch over to S Bridgmohan is an interesting move - look for him to be a very good price and contend here today.

 10  Wild Bill   CH c   Johnny Cash - Cassie    14   6   3   1    $1,131.610

br - Silver Star Stables (KY) own - Angelos Stable                               J R Velazquez

He has a ton in common with the nine horse - outside post in the Derby, coming off of a solid sprint, looking like everything was set to go, then the post set him up for disaster. He does not show a posted work, and looks like the type that needs a bit of time between efforts. Regular rider J Velazquez get the call, and I'm sure alot of people are looking for him to improve from that lack-luster effort in KY - I'm not one of them. I think this could be a similar scenario of not being able to find position and the shuffle causing him alot of problems.

 11  Lord Of The Mountain B g Inmotion - Sun Devil   11  4  1  2   $853.270

br - Waldo (AZ) own - Waldo                                                                  K J Desormeaux

Boy, has this one been solid since the gelding back in Jan? Other than the "bounce" in the Wood Memorial (GI), he has been a winner or a contender in every race since the unkindest of "cuts". He ran a huge race in the KY Derby, staying in contention through the early stages and still having enough left to make a run down the lane and taking the third spot. I see no reason to believe that he will not be a monster again today, and short of a lack of posted works (he has nothing since Apr 26), I like everything about him. K Desormeaux get the call once again, and the pair should keep their hot-streak going.

 12   Central Block Party  CH c  AG - AG   10   3   2   0    $848.680

br - Rouck Farm (KY) own - Rouck Farm                                                     R J Albarado

I know that winning means everything, but this horse may have had the most impressive run at CD two weeks ago. When they turned for home, he looked like he was left of the side of the road - then, picking off horses like they were sitting still, he was able to gain the fourth spot, while making up quite a bit of ground. He has chosen to skip the posted work, but we all know that the farm has him fit and ready for this race. They are going back to R Albarado (he was up in the FL Derby (GI) effort) and I think you have to put him on the tri ticket - and maybe more.

 13  Misterkatesmith B c V For Victory - Thefatladysings 8  3  3  0   $620.950

br - Calia Stable (NY) own - Calia Stable                                        R A Dominguez

He came into the Derby with alot of fan-fare - that Wood Mem (GI) victory was over a very nice group of horses - and in the early stages, two weeks ago, he looked like a handful. However, as they turned for home, he just seemed to prove that he did not want that extra part of real estate, and dropped back in short order. He did have a solid jaunt over the course the other day, and seems to be fit and ready. E Coa has been replaced with R A Dominguez (his first time aboard) and I'm not sure if that is a good thing or not.

 14  Echo Wave  B c    AG - AG                      9   3   2   1    $825.730

br - Desha Farms (CA) own - Desha Farms                                        N Arroyo Jr

How many people thought that he was going to win the Derby, with 150-yards to go. I did - he was moving very well in the late stages, and I really believed he had a eye on the win. However, 3/4's of a lenght is the difference between... well, you know. He get's another terrible post - seems to be his story of late, however, he has overcome it before, and no reason to believe he can't do it again. No posted works - but again, we know he's ready for this battle. Look for him to be all anyone wants and a major factor when the photo is taken.

 15  ae Morning Blue CH c Blue Bayou - Count On me   7  4  0  1   $422.920

br - Sccj Stables (CA) own - Sccj Stables                                                          no rider

AE - he has chalked-up two wins in four starts this spring, and was a bit short when last out in the SA Derby (GI). He spent most of the sprint at FG and certainly was tough in a pair of graded races there. If he get's in, he could be something to keep an eye on.

 16  ae Jacks Bear CH c Jacks Wild - Berry Bear   11  4  0  2   $254.190

br - Unreal Racing (FL) own - Unreal Racing                                        no rider

AE - another that was in the SA Derby (GI) and just missed a check that day. He did a bit of damage while racing in SoCal, and will be a solid horse through the summer HCP races. I'll be shocked if he starts today, but odder things have happened.

 17  ae Sparticus   BL c   AG - AG                      11   3   3   3     $139.120

br - Looney Stables (VA) own - Looney Stables                                  no rider

AE - third in the Holly Bull (GIII) in his only graded start. He is a consistent animal, but I think he'd have his work cut out for him if he were to draw in, and that is doubtful, at best.

 18  ae 7 Thirty Four  B c  AG - AG                          11   3   2   2   $80.650

br - Camberwell (CA)   own - Camberwell                                       no rider

AE - obviously, this would be shooting for the moon, and it's just as well that he will not draw into this. Look for him in a GIII or non-graded event, where he will fit well and contend.

COZMAN Picks -     1   /       12       /      14     /    11 

===============================================================================================