June 4, 2008

We have already talked about what it takes to win the Belmont. But, as a quick refresher, here are my Top Four Tips for picking the champion of the final jewel in the American Triple Crown:

1.  Sprinting bloodlines from the sire and dam

2.  A solid stakes-filled juvenile campaign

3.  Ability to show speed from the start

4.  The move forward to a peak performance

Now, onto the big race itself.  Saturday, over a main track nicknamed Big Sandy, the fifth running of the Grade I BEL will take place and an overflow field of 16 have been entered in search of adding their names alongside Half Spirit and North Of The Border as winners of one of the three-year-old classics in 2008.  While the PRK winner has drawn a solid inside stall in search of his second straight Grade I win, the KYD victor has been slotted in post 10 and will have to overcome the run into the first turn and, of course, 15 other horses that have put a target on his back ever since he ran away with the roses on that fateful first Saturday in May.

1-Wild Bill (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Angelos Stable / Jockey-J R Velazquez)

                Shrewdly purchased at auction by his owner before ever setting foot on the racetrack, Wild Bill has been paying dividends in spades for Angelos Stable and comes into the BEL in search of a second Grade I win on the season.  A multiple stakes winning sprinter as a two-year-old, he stretched things out while a closing fourth in the Grade II Fountain Of Youth and put it all together with an explosive rally in the Grade I FL Derby that looked to set him up perfectly for the KYD.  Unfortunately, his trip from one of the most brutal post positions never really gave him a chance and he followed that up with a seventh place effort in the PRK after pressing the pace, making him vulnerable from an inside stall unless he can get early positioning.  His sire was only able to take a maiden win at MNR and his dam was only 2-for-10 so the pedigree might be a little lacking; couple that with some tough beats against this class and you have a mild longshot and a horse that will need to improve to contend.

Pedigree-D                                            Speed-B

Juvenile Campaign-B                          Move Forward-C

Overall-C

Will have to show much more to contend for a top spot

Fair Odds-12/1

2-North Of The Border (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Calia Stable / Jockey-G K Gomez)

                Since being gelded three starts back, North Of The Border has been on fire with wins in the Grade I BG Stake and of course, the Grade I PRK three weeks ago and the Calia Stable trainee looks to double up Saturday and give his owner another thrill of a lifetime.  After humble beginnings with only a maiden and allowance score, the son of outstanding Grade II router I Am Canadian was gelded in hopes of bringing out his closing potential and did he ever show that potential in the BG as he swept to the lead before closing out a one-length score at nearly 6-1.  He was caught outside in the KYD and never factored but redeemed himself in the PRK with a brilliant score at 31-1 and, while you will not get those odds come Saturday, you will get a horse on the improve and a horse with the potential to score yet again.  The inside post will help his chances with the speed factor that seems to be so necessary and a single workout, while over the slop, proved to be all he needed to keep him fit and ready for another top effort.

Pedigree-B+                                          Speed-B+

Juvenile Campaign-D                          Move Forward-A

Overall-B+

Has the room to improve even more at the longer distance

Fair Odds-3/1

3-Circumflex (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Acber Farms / Jockey-C S Nakatani)

                Oh, how the mighty have fallen.  Last year, Circumflex used wins in the Grade I DMR Futurity and the Grade I BC Juvenile to take home top honours in the Two-Year-Old Colt division but four starts this year have produced increasingly worse efforts and he will have to completely reverse his form to best even half of the field in the BEL.  Granted, his Grade II San Rafael effort was good but his recent two have been less than what was expected and a weakening 14^th in the KYD led to a brief freshening in search of better form.  He can certainly handle longer distances with a stalking and closing style but his pedigree is nothing to write home about when it comes to this stamina test and that will make him a definite outsider as he looks to regain the form that made him a $1,000.000+ earner at two.

Pedigree-D                                            Speed-C

Juvenile Campaign-A+                        Move Forward-F

Overall-D

Looks overmatched off his present form

Fair Odds-40/1

4-American Wonder (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Jsl Racing / Jockey-M J Luzzi)

                Usually, at least in real life, the winner of the Grade II Peter Pan warrants a big look four weeks later at the BEL but American Wonder might be overlooked in the betting pools and that could leave him a big overlay with a big shot.  His two-year-old season was solid with three wins including a minor state-bred event in NY and his three-year-old season has been better with wins in the Grade III Gotham and the aforementioned Peter Pan, where he cruised up over the slop to record a going-away win and a second straight 95-speed mark.  If it rains, the race could be his based on solid off-track form and, although both his sire and dam failed to win a race in their careers, his current form cannot be ignored and he should be a solid threat for a minor share going this distance.

Pedigree-D                                            Speed-C

Juvenile Campaign-B                          Move Forward-B+

Overall-C+

Could make a bigger impression than many pundits expect

Fair Odds-10/1

5-Tough Test (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Power Racing / Jockey-H A Karamanos)

                Tough Test took a fair amount of support in the Grade I PRK after a solid placing in the Grade II Coolmore Lexington at KEE but was unable to show much, which will prompt a lot of support off his back and leave him a longer shot in this tough field.  He really has not had a bad race although he has finished off-the-board, until that PRK where many of the top choices failed, and if you toss that race out and give him another chance, he should be able to move forward and surprise going this extended distance.  A homebred for stalwart Power Racing, his sire came home with only minor success while his dam has thrown a minor stakes-placed filly going a route, which should only help him with his stamina and hopefully, give him the opportunity to show speed the entire way to a solid placing.

Pedigree-C                                            Speed-C

Juvenile Campaign-C                          Move Forward-C

Overall-C

Nothing to write home about but a solid racehorse nonetheless

Fair Odds-15/1

6-Gold War Paint (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Angelos Stable / Jockey-A O Solis)

                Gold War Paint is one of those horses that jumped up at the right time, in the right race, against the right field and took a big win with a big purse.  That race was the inaugural BC Juvenile Turf over a soft MTH course and since then, he has failed to gain a cheque in Graded and even allowance company going over both dirt and turf.  Workouts have been decent but the pedigree is not there and how can you really back a horse that has not taken home any purse money as a three-year-old.  Unfortunately, not a lot of people will.

Pedigree-D                                            Speed-F

Juvenile Campaign-C                          Move Forward-F

Overall-D-

Really has no reason to be in this field

Fair Odds-50/1

7-Trench Coat (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Barking Stables / Jockey-K S Tohill)

                Another case of a colt that blossomed as a juvenile and fizzled as a sophomore is Trench Coat, which has finished third in the Coolmore Lexington and really, not much else.  A multiple Grade I winner and finalist for Top Two-Year-Old Colt last year, there was plenty of expectations on his back for 2008 and those have yet to come to fruition at all after two dismal efforts to begin the season and a lackluster effort at long odds at CD.  Only one published workout at ELP means that he has probably trained at the farm and even with a Grade III winner for a sire, one cannot back this colt with any real confidence against horses with much better three-year-old form.

Pedigree-C+                                          Speed-C

Juvenile Campaign-A-                         Move Forward-D

Overall-C

Lacks the momentum to make him a true contender

Fair Odds-25/1

8-Central Block Party (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Rouck Farm / Jockey-E S Prado)

                Peel away the layers of Central Block Party and you get a colt with a bright future and the ability to move forward and handle the distance that the BEL has to offer, even without the pedigree to back it up.  His two-year-old campaign was well managed and he was thrown to the wolves earlier this season but he made up for everything with a smashing win in the Grade II AR Derby which gave him plenty of upswing heading into the first Saturday in May.  Closing into a quick pace in the KYD, he managed to take home a clear fourth and with the slower pace in the PRK, he could only close late to grab sixth and while the distances keep getting longer and the fractions should be slower, the BEL has a tendency to wear horses out and that should prove to his advantage.  Workouts have been good and a move forward is expected. So, look for a bigger that life effort from this colt as what should be a decent price, especially as others come in with flash credentials.

Pedigree-N/A                                        Speed-D

Juvenile Campaign-C                          Move Forward-A

Overall-B

I will give this colt a big shot to continue to his solid season

Fair Odds-6/1

9-The Warhorse (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Downunder / Jockey-R R Douglas)

                Multiple Grade II winner The Warhorse had a solid juvenile campaign and has continued it at three with wins in the Grade II Swale and the Grade II LA Derby and despite a less than perfect effort in the Grade I FL Derby and a minor improvement in the Grade I KYD, you have to look for this horse to show much better momentum for his top-class connections.  His LA Derby win was one of the best races of the year for a three-year-old and regression was expected, although not as much as we saw, and the brief freshening and solid work schedule should work wonders for both his stamina and his confidence.  His sire was only a maiden winner and his dam was only minor stakes placed but he has room to advance in his seasoning and the stalking trip that could work in a field that has little speed to offer.

Pedigree-C                                            Speed-C

Juvenile Campaign-B                          Move Forward-B+

Overall-B

Could be the sleeper after a solid start to his year

Fair Odds-10/1

10-Half Spirit (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Buckeyebred / Jockey-T J Thompson)

                It is difficult to think that a $538.520 auction purchase could actually make that money back throughout the course of a career but Half Spirit made that amount back in winning the Grade I KYD and even with this TC bid spoiled, he still warrants a huge look after an even fourth at PIM.  His juvenile season was solid but he really came into his own off the layoff with wins in the Grade III Southwest and the Grade II Rebel and after faltering in the AR Derby, he got everything to click in the big Derby at more than 40-1.  It is tough for any horse to put two stellar efforts back to back but the true test of a champion is his ability to come back after a setback and I think the Half Spirit has the talent and class to come back with everything he has and more come Saturday.

Pedigree-C                                            Speed-B+

Juvenile Campaign-B+                        Move Forward-A

Overall-A

The KYD winner has to be respected in this field
Fair Odds-7/2

11-Power Of Sinbad SCRATCHED

12-Echo Wave (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Desha Farms / Jockey-N Arroyo Jr)

                Despite having not won since the Grade II San Rafael in his first start of the year, Echo Wave is one of the most exciting three-year-olds in the BEL field and has to been given a very long look after runner-up finishes in three straight Grade I races.  The BG Stakes was his but he stalled late behind North Of The Border, the KYD was his before he just missed against Half Spirit and the outside stall in the PRK caught up to him as he was unable to run down North Of The Border in the final 3/16ths and with those two rivals in this field, he will have his hands full once again.  Two bullet workouts including a smashing five-furlong prep should have him in peak form and you can only expect him to get better with distance as his closing kick will be even more effective against tiring and less seasoned rivals.

Pedigree-N/A                                        Speed-C+

Juvenile Campaign-B+                        Move Forward-A+

Overall-A

Three straight second-places finishes, can he finally break through?

Fair Odds-2/1

13-Lord Of The Mountain (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Waldo / Jockey-K J Desormeaux)

                Grade II Fountain Of Youth winner and Grade I Coolmore Lexington winner Lord Of The Mountain certainly has beaten a lot of horses in this field and beat 17 of the best to take third in the KYD but the quick turnaround time into the PRK might have taken its toll and he will have to show much more if he hopes to take a classic win against fellow classic entrants.  The Lexington was certainly the highpoint of his season when he beat rivals Tough Test and Trench Coat with authority and earned a 100-speed mark but he came back after only two weeks and could not close enough in the KYD before the debacle at PIM that could easily be blamed on his outside post.  The 13-hole is not going to help things any in this talented field and although he has shown speed in the past, his sire and dam do not give a lot of support for his cause going 1 ½ miles and that might leave him with an uphill task, closing with a bunch of other closers.

Pedigree-C+                                          Speed-C

Juvenile Campaign-C                          Move Forward-D

Overall-C

Certainly has talent but cannot put it together against the best

Fair Odds-15/1

14-Misterkatesmith (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Calia Stable / Jockey-R A Dominguez)

                Calia Stable already has the PRK winner in their barn, thanks to North Of The Border, and while that one looks like a solid contender, this little colt might have more upside on Saturday and could prove to be a big spoiler.  His distance potential was certainly in full force when he took the restricted Runyon going long as a two-year-old, in only his third lifetime start, and even with a lone win this year coming in the Grade I Wood Memorial, he has the forward momentum from both KYD and PRK tries to get the distance and spring the upset.  He weakened badly after pressing the pace in the former and set the pace before tiring in the latter but history has shown us that speed types can handle the distance when the fractions are slower; add in the fact that his sire was Grade III-placed at this distance on the turf and you have a combination that looks more appealing than many in this field.

Pedigree-B-                                           Speed-A

Juvenile Campaign-B                          Move Forward-A

Overall-B+

Take a long look at both stable stars and make your pick

Fair Odds-6/1

15-Hidden Scriptures (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Hearts Of Steel / Jockey-R J Albarado)

                Hidden Scriptures certainly had a long and productive campaign as a two-year-old with 11 starts, four wins and more than $320.000 in earnings and although 2008 has yet to produce a win, he has been right there with the best including a third place finish in the PRK and that could give him the forward momentum to run the race of his life.  Distance limitations presented themselves when he failed to hold on in the Grade III Nashua and when he could not close enough in either the Grade III Fountain Of Youth or Grade II San Felipe but this hard luck colt keeps trying his best and keeps getting cheques and that is what makes a horse looks so attractive in a race like this.  When the pace collapses or the front running begin to weaken, horses like Hidden Scriptures seem to rise up to the task; that being said, it is tough to get a gauge based on some less than inspiring pedigree and his backers will just have to hope that he can overcome post 15 and make the same move at the leaders he did three long weeks ago.

Pedigree-D                                            Speed-C

Juvenile Campaign-A                          Move Forward-A

Overall-B

Apart from the outside stall, this colt should be a contender

Fair Odds-10/1

16-Jack The Dancer (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Thinken Stables / Jockey-J J Castellano)

                MNR missile to mid-level claimer to Grade I winner, Jack The Dancer has done it all in his career and unfortunately for him in this type of field, he looks like he might be a bit overmatched against the top of his class.  Granted, he did take a big jump forward in the SA Derby to score the huge off-the-pace win and then was put in against the best in the KYD where he closed from 14^th to take 6^th on the wire; give him the benefit of that start and you have a gelding that could get back on track in this spot, especially going from the rail to the farthest possible outside post.  Fast or sloppy, the workouts have been solid coming in and both his sire and dam come from good breeding families (his sire gave us the WO Oaks winner on this same weekend last year), so he has every chance to run past rivals late and take a better than expected finish in what has become a learning curve for this improving sophomore.

Pedigree-B                                            Speed-B

Juvenile Campaign-D                          Move Forward-B

Overall-C+

Was probably over the top at CD but could get going again

Fair Odds-15/1

17-Morning Blue (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Sccj Stables / Jockey-E M Coa)

                Morning Blue was one of the top rated colts at the beginning of this season when he rattled off four straight wins including scores in the Grade III Lecomte and Grade III Risen Star and having been entered in both the KYD and PRK but kept off the final starting list, he finally gets into a classic and can show what he is made of against the best.  Surprisingly, he is one of only two new shooters to the TC trail (American Wonder being the other) and he is one of two starters that have less than 10 career starts, along with Misterkatesmith, so the seasoning and class factors might come into play against others that have the needed experience.  His pedigree is nothing to write home about but he has had two months off while others have been slaving on the trail, giving him the fresh angle and the speed profile to produce a front running effort that, as documented, could be a big factor with the stretch out.

Pedigree-D                                            Speed-A

Juvenile Campaign-B                          Move Forward-C

Overall-C+

Finally gets into a field but will the time off hurt him?

Fair Odds-20/1

Overall

Before we look at the field as a whole, let us take a look at the tops in each key category:

Pedigree-North Of The Border, Jack The Dancer

Speed-Misterkatesmith, Morning Blue

Juvenile Campaign-Circumflex, Trench Coat, Hidden Scriptures

Move Forward-Echo Wave

As you can see, there is a mixed bag of results in our Top Four stats so we need to look at two factors a little more closely; speed and the move forward.  Simply put, the horses that have the more upswing should be doing the best and those that have the speed to flaunt should get good trips and be able to hold on longer than the closers.  For that reason, my top pick in the 2008 Grade I BEL is Misterkatesmith, who improved enough in the PRK to warrant a long look here; at what should be a very long price.  Without even knowing it, I actually put together a Calia Stable exacta with North Of The Border rounding out the ticket since his PRK win was such a thing of beauty and he gets a beautiful inside stall to work with.  Third will go to the always consistent Echo Wave, who really has every chance to move forward and could just be sitting on a key race, while fourth will be a battle between Hidden Scriptures and Half Spirit with the former getting the better closing trip from the outside of the gate.  All in all, this edition of the BEL looks like one of the ages and we will be writing about the outcome for weeks and months to come.  Good luck to all!

Prediction

Win-Misterkatesmith (6/1)

Place-North Of The Border (3/1)

Show-Echo Wave (2/1)

4^th-Hidden Scriptures (10/1)