June 2, 2008

It is one of the most prestigious races in the world and one of the most difficult to win.  While many in the racing world call it the Run For The Carnations with its connotations to the blanket of carnations that adorn the winner, it has been more commonly known as the Test Of The Champion for its ability, in the same breath, to both elevate and disappoint the best dirt horses in the world.  But come the first weekend in June, there is no doubt that the eyes of all thoroughbred lovers the world over travel to picturesque Elmont, New York for the running of the Grade I Belmont Stakes, the final jewel in the illustrious American Triple Crown.  Along with the Grade I Kentucky Derby run the first Saturday in May and the Grade I Preakness Stakes held two weeks later, these three make up one of the toughest goals for any professional athlete and, while many great horses have been able to win the first two legs, only a true champion has the athleticism, stamina and prowess to claim all three and truly rank themselves among the best of the breed.  In this brief overview of both the Real Life and HRP Belmont Stakes, from its first running in 1867 to present day 2008, we will examine the best the sport of horse racing has had to offer over the ages and try to get a glimpse of what it takes to crown a true champion.

Although it has been run at numerous racetracks, from Jerome Park to Morris Park to Aqueduct and finally to Belmont Park, and has been contested at distances ranging from nine furlongs to its current 12 furlongs, the essence of the Belmont Stakes has always been to promote the best of the breed going a route of ground and has been the showcase for some of the greatest performances in modern thoroughbred history.  Ironically, there have only been three fillies that have proven themselves best at the marathon distance and they bookend the 139 runnings; Hall Of Famer Ruthless, who would take the Grade I Travers in a subsequent start, won the first ever Belmont in 1867 while Rags To Riches, one of the most thrilling three-year-old fillies to ever step on the track, took the 2007 edition in a powerful stretch duel over eventual Horse Of The Year Curlin.  Inaugural President of The Jockey Club August Belmont, for which the race is named, took home the 1869 prize with Fenian and jockey Jim McLaughlin, tied for the most Belmont wins with 6, scored all of his wins in the 1880s with Forester, Hanover and Sir Dixon to name a few.  In 1895, Grade I Preakness winner Belmar proved the best in the Belmont for the aptly named Preakness Stables run by Milton Stanford, forever tying the two prestigious races in history, and the 1905 running would give us the first event over the now Belmont Park oval and also give us the third female winner in the form of Tanya.  Over the next 30 years, some of the greatest thoroughbreds in history would find themselves in the Belmont winners circle including Peter Pan (1907), Friar Rock (1916), a winner for August Belmont Jr., Triple Crown winner Sir Barton (1919) and of course, Man O War (1920), a champion that many consider to be the best horse to ever step foot on the track.  Five-time winning jockey Earle Sande would take his victories between 1921 and 1930 with wins aboard Grey Lag, Zev, Mad Play, Chance Shot and Horse Of The Year Gallant Fox, who would give Sande the distinction of riding the 2^nd Triple Crown winner in history.  While the 1930s might have given us three Triple Crown winners with Gallant Fox, 1935 winner Omaha and 1937 War Admiral, it was the 1940s that gave us the best of the best in the Belmont with such celebrated winners as Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946) and the immortal Citation, who took home 16 straight wins in top-level competition, became the first millionaire in racing history and would provide Hall Of Fame jockey Eddie Arcaro with his fourth of six wins in the race, tying him with the aforementioned Jim McLaughlin for the record.

The back half of the 20^th Century gave us some of the most influential winners in Belmont Stakes and the namesakes of the most important races for juveniles, sophomores and older runners all across the country.   1955 winner and Champion three-year-old Nashua has a two-year-old race in New York named after him while the 1959 running gave us Horse Of The Year Sword Dancer and his grass race for older runners held annually at Saratoga.  Three years later in 1962, Jaipur proved to be the best in his edition of the Belmont and eventually had a turf race named after him while an offspring of Sword Dancer was the winner in 1967 as Damascus used his win to take down championship honours in three categories including Horse Of The Year.  Jockey Ron Turcotte won successive runnings of the Belmont in 1972 with the brilliant Riva Ridge and in 1973 with Secretariat, who set a World Record of 2:24 for the distance that still stands today and took home his win by 31-lengths, the largest margin of victory in any modern day Grade I event (this performance is considered one of the greatest in history along with the 100-length win by Man O War in the 1920 Lawrence Realization Stakes).  Seattle Slew became the first undefeated Triple Crown winner with his smashing four-length score in the 1977 running and one year later, the immortal Affirmed bested stalwart Alydar for the third straight time to stamp himself as a Belmont champion and the 11^th and final Triple Crown winner to date.  Three jockeys (Laffit Pincay Jr, Eddie Maple and Chris McCarron) teamed with the legendary Woody Stephens to help him with five straight Belmonts in the 1980s including the 1982 edition with Horse Of The Year Conquistador Cielo and the 1984 edition with Swale, who has a sprint stakes at Gulfstream Park named in his honour.

The past 20 years of Belmont history are not so much about who won, but about who did not win in their quest for the illusive Triple Crown and many of the best horses in recent memory have gone down to defeat over the grueling 1-½ mile test of a champion.  1989 Belmont winner Easy Goer denied the Triple Crown to Sunday Silence, who had won the Kentucky Derby by 2.5 lengths and the Preakness by a nose in a thrilling stretch duel, while in 1995, Derby winner Thunder Gulch avenged his loss in the Preakness to Timber Country with a impressive victory in the Belmont en route to Champion three-year-old accolades.  The close of the 20^th Century saw three Triple Crown hopeful go down to defeat as Silver Charm, Real Quiet and Charismatic all had their bids spoiled by winner Touch Gold (1997), who scored by just under a length, Victory Gallop (1998), who scored by a desperate nostril and Lemon Drop Kid (1999), who took home win after Charismatic injured himself in the drive to the line.  Another three peat looked like a possibility in 2002, 2003 and 2004 but the bids of War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones were put to bed by the longshot Sarava, the regally bred Empire Maker and the gutsy Birdstone, who would add a Grade I Travers victory to his resume in his next start.  In 2006, Jazil proved the best as a son of Better Than Bonds and last year, as mentioned, Rags To Riches proved her might as a daughter of Better Than Bonds (we will see if Casino Drive can add to that legacy on Saturday).

The four runnings of the BEL Stakes at HRP have provided us with varying levels of greatness and while breeding cannot be fully taken into account as of yet, it certainly looks like pedigree will begin to play a major factor in the years to come.  The inaugural running in 2004 was taken by former claimer The Governor, who had proven himself with wins going 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles on the dirt and was clearly in a position to move forward and handle the distance.  Facing 15 rivals from the two-hole, he got away second and stalked solid early fractions before outlasting Nonge Norange to score by four-lengths in a final time of 2:31.78 and while he was able to take the Grade I Woodward later that year, he really never regained his form and was retired in 2006 after posting nine wins in 25 career starts.  2005 saw the emergence of a superstar in multiple Grade I winner Habanero, who ran three straight Graded Stakes wins together including the Grade I Wood Memorial en route to his try at TC immortality.  Only fourth in the Grade I KYD and a close third in the Grade I PRK, he finally put it all together in the BEL and was able to contest glacial fractions before powering home to a near three-length win over gelding Disco Force and KYD champ Sleepless Nights, establishing a new track record of 2:31.30 in the process.  The chestnut would end off his career with six more Grade I tussles and eventually take his final victory in his final race, besting a small but talented field of sophomores in the Grade I Malibu before being shuttled off to a stud career that for the most part, has turned out to be a total bust with no stakes winners from his first 85 foals to date.

Despite that fact that his dam was a Grade III-placed sprinter and his sire never even raced on the dirt, The Maestro was able to completely outrun his pedigree as a two-year-old and a three-year-old and become one of the few horses to take Graded Stakes wins at the ages of two, three and four.  An impressive winner of his KEE debut, he would annex the Grade I Hopeful in his juvenile campaign and end up third in the Grade I BC Juvenile before starting off his sophomore campaign with a brilliant win over the GP slop in the Grade II Hutcheson.  The wheels fell off a little with an off-the-board finish in the KYD but he rebounded with Lasix in the PRK to finish second and off that sharp effort, he was able to capitalize on his sharp middle speed and bottom out the field, defeating the charging PRK winner Dark Crown by just under a length in a stakes record time of 2:30.64.  He would test the turf later in the season and score a blowout win in the Grade II Sky Classic and would eventually begin his four-year-old classic with a demolition of the Grade II Strub at SA before being retired later that year; surprisingly, his offspring have been more successful that that of Habanero with Il Miglio Fabro and his win in the Grade III TAM Derby and the score of Maestro Cat in the Grade III Transylvania on the turf.

With a Grade I winning sprinter for a father and a Grade I-placed sprinter for a mother, there was great things expected from Timepiece and he fulfilled them as a two-year-old with two Grade I wins in the BC Juvenile and the HOL Futurity en route to championship honours as Top Two-Year-Old.  As with The Maestro the previous year, the wheels fell off going into the KYD but he rebounded with a solid second in the PRK before taking home the top prize in the BEL over a smaller than expected field of 10.  While his final time of 2:33 73 was the slowest of the four runnings, it did come over a good track and over top class rivals Fusion and Chien Ming Wang and that set him up perfectly for a sharp follow-up victory in the Grade I Haskell next time out.  He would add another Grade I victory in the important Malibu earlier this year but was recently retired and will see his first foals from some outstanding runners as Hazel Eyes, Ashtons Pride, Keuka Rainbow, Lady Zen and Java Jive arrive at the track later this year.

So what can we learn from the Real Life results of the Belmont Stakes and the four runnings at HRP from 2004 to 2007?  Although we do not have a lot of pedigree information from our four virtual victors, we do have a lot of back class and I have compiled from Top Four Tips for picking a Belmont winner:

1.        Even with very little substantial breeding information to go on, the two winners that have been homebreds have been out of sprinting bloodstock and pedigree to handle the added distance of 1 ½ miles has always been at a premium in the Real Life addition.  Look out for a horse with some sprinting blood in his background on either the sire or the dam side, and preferably both.

2.        Horses that have done well in the BEL have generally done very well as juveniles with Habanero, The Maestro and Timepiece all taking stakes wins as two-year-olds; and let us not forget the multitude of two-year-old champions that came back at three to win the Belmont in real life (Citation, Seattle Slew, Secretariat and Easy Goer are just some that come to mind).  A BEL champ should possess the back class as a juvenile to give him the foundation to handle the distance and late pressure that inevitably comes when the pace collapses.

3.        The four winners of the BEL here at HRP have all been close to the early pace and took their leads early before holding on late, so closers over the deep and tiring track have little advantage against those that can show their stuff early.  Although that kind of style has not done well in the real life version with recent failures from War Emblem and Smarty Jones fresh in the mind, the race I am focusing on will most likely be won by a horse in the top three early and a good handicapper will try to pick the speed of the speed in what should be an overflow field.

4.        We have only had one real TC contender at HRP and that was Fuji Ninja in 2004 but the most recent BEL winners have struggled in the KYD, improved in the PRK and took their biggest prize in the BEL.  Many Triple Crown runs have been spoiled by upset winners in the Belmont including six winners in the last 10 years and those that have come through for the heartbreaking victories have been pointed specifically to a peak race going the grueling distance.  While it might not be a solid angle, look for a horse that has improved over the TC trail and might be showing signs of a top effort against others that have had tough campaigns.

There you go.  Sprinting bloodlines from the sire and the dam, a solid stakes-filled juvenile campaign, the ability to show speed from the start and the move forward towards a peak effort.  Those are four of the many factors that will lead to a BEL victory for both the real life competitors and the HRP ones this upcoming Saturday.  We will wish good luck to Big Brown in his quest for the American Triple Crown and to all the expected 16 competitors in the virtual version at BEL under what should be ideal conditions.