Race Engine: First Impression

Purse $0.00 (plus up to $0.00 for PA-breds) For Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward. Additional Requirements: Have won less than 3 races (other than statebred).   Weight 123 lbs. Non-winners of a race other than maiden or claiming since 1/11/2012 3 lbs. Non-winners of a race other than maiden or claiming since 12/11/2011 6 lbs.   1 Sweet Treat   Owner:   Choppy Inc. 2012:   (264 44 .17) Jockey:   Potts C L 2012:   (593 148 .25) B. m. 5 (Jun) Bb 117   Sire: HRP-Leestown   Dam: HRP-What A Treat   Br: Choppy Inc. ( Fla) 9/2 LIFE 12 2 3 1 22.26 85 2012 1 0 1 0 0.00 90 2011 8 1 2 1 22.26 87 WET 2 0 1 0 2.80 70 TURF 11 2 2 1 22.26 85 LONG 1 0 0 0 0.00 82  Rc 95.4/ 94.9/86.1                                                   93.2/89(182.2)                   H 93.2/89.6   19.2CL 27Jan12-22PEN fst 5 1/2f   :222 :46 :583 1:051 4+fClm20.00(20-15)N4L 89 2 42 32 22 22 Potts C L B 117 b 22.15 90-13 4 Claimed from Hay Makers Inc. for $10.00 28Dec11-5TAM fm 5f T :214 :452   :58 3+fClm10.00N4L 87 2 42 43   43 Morales P B 116 b 3.15 87-13 6 27Nov11-17MNR fm 5f T :221 :453   :574 3+fClm45.00(50-45) --- 1 11/2 1hd   32 Houghton T D B 111 b 0.95 91-11 3 8Sep11-4CRC sft 5f T :224 :48   1:012 3+fClm16.00N3L 85 7 11/4 31   21/4 Saez L B 120 b 5.30 74-31 8 14Jul11-4CRC fm 5f T :22 :453   :58 3+fClm25.00N3L 90 2 12 11   2hd Saez L B 120 b 2.15 91-7 5 17Jun11-5LS fm 1 T :233 :471 1:104 1:35 3+fAlw27.00 87 8 31/4 53 65 77 McNeil B LB 122 b 8.85 82-14 7 Works: 3Feb12 PEN 6f fst 1:153 B 31/37 19Jan12 PEN 6f fst 1:132 H 8/23 5Jan12 TAM 5f fst 1:003 H 10/15 16Dec11 MNR 5f(T) fm 1:003 H 18/42   2 Street Gossip Owner:   Sunny J Farm 2012:   (7 1 .14) Jockey:   Diaz V 2012:   (212 31 .15) B. m. 5 (Mar) Lb 117   Sire: HRP-Count Fleet   Dam: HRP-Nixe   Br: Sunny J Farm (NY) 15 LIFE 9 3 2 3 90.37 87 2012 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 2011 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 WET 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 TURF 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 LONG 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 Rc 96.4/98.1/84.9                                                   93.1/96(189.1)                    H 96.8/89.9   25.4 CL 4Jul10-6FL fst 6f   :223 :461 :582 1:111 fNiagar50.00 96 3 11 1nk 21 32 Flores Jer L 120 b 18.35 91-15 4 30May10-6CD fst 5 1/2f   :222 :454 :581 1:042 fAlw50.00N1X 87 2 42 63 73 63 Solis A O L 120 b 3.85 87-14 9 2May10-2BEL fst 6 1/2f   :223 :461 1:11 1:17 fNYSSPA100.00 89 5 21/2 2no 22 34 Velasquez C H L 122 b 7.35 87-9 5 12Apr10-14MNR fst 5 1/2f   :23 :47 :593 1:062 fAlw0.00N2L --- 4 11/2 11/2 11 11 Canchano A L 113 b 1.55 81-23 5 23Jan10-11FG fst 5 1/2f   :23 :47 :591 1:052 fAlw47.00N2X 88 3 1nk 2no 2nk 2nk Mena M L 120 b 0.90 87-13 4 29Nov09-1AQU fst 6f d :222 :461 :584 1:12 fAlw44.00N1X 91 2 1nk 2no 1no 11/2 Velasquez C H L 116 b 2.85 98-2 6 Works: 31Jan12 PEN 3f fst :35 H 2/13 18Jan12 AQU 4f fst :47 H 2/3 29Jun10 FL 4f fst :483 H 3/5 23May10 FE 3f fst :344 H 1/1   3 Rosa Bianca Owner:   Maletto 2012:   (205 16 .08) Jockey:   Santiago Javier 2012:   (67 7 .10) B. m. 5 (Apr) Lb 117   Sire: HRP-Intikhab   Dam: HRP-Cinquepace   Br: Reverse Karma Stable (Pa) 10 LIFE 9 1 3 2 21.84 77 2012 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 2011 1 0 0 1 6.88 82 WET 2 0 2 0 11.66 65 TURF 3 0 2 0 11.66 68 LONG 3 1 0 1 10.18 78 Rc Rt  87.7/84.6/80.4                                               84.2/89 (173.2)                 H 83.7/83    55.1 CL 15May11-1PHA fst 170   :231 :471 1:121 1:423 3+fAlw43.00N1X 89 1 22 43 32 31 Elliott S L 117 b 11.95 82-10 4 Rc 93.2/93.5/80.5                                                     89.1/83(172.1)                   H 89.5/84  25.8 CL   31Mar10-7TAM fst 6f   :224 :461 :582 1:113 fAlw20.20N1X 83 8 64 74 105 106 Arterburn B L 116 b 8.30 83-17 10 6Feb10-5HOU fst 170   :234 :483 1:141 1:442 fMd10.00 82 1 34 35 32 13 Ramirez J R L 122 b 1.60 79-11 4 29Jan10-3TAM fm 1 T :232 :472 1:122 1:372 fMdSpWt20.00 76 8 44 87 96 64 Homeister R B Jr L 120 b 10.00 74-13 9 11Sep09-1PEN sft 5f T :233 :494   1:034 fMdSpWt25.00 78 4 54 42   21 Otero W P L 119 b 2.10 62-37 7 15Jul09-3WO gd 6f T :233 :481 1:004 1:133 fMd37.50(40-37.5) 80 3 32 31 21 23/4 Dos Ramos R A   118 b 1.90 68-25 5 Works: 5Feb12 PEN 5f fst 1:00 H 15/159 21Jan12 PEN 3f fst :341 H 19/126 6Jan12 PEN 4f(T) fm :472 H 22/240 26Dec11 PEN 6f(T) fm 1:114 H 10/129   4 Musette   Owner:   Jpe Stable 2012:   (29 3 .10) Jockey:   Baez J 2012:   (25 0 .00) Gr. f. 4 (Apr) LB 117   Sire: HRP-Silver Charm   Dam: HRP-Datura   Br: Jpe Stable (Pa) 20 LIFE 2 0 0 0 0.00 70 2012 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 2011 1 0 0 0 0.00 80 WET 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 TURF 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 LONG 2 0 0 0 0.00 70 Rc 83.6/80/72                                                         78.5/69(147.5)                     H 76.4/73.2    58CL                                      7Aug11-2CLS fst 170   :233 :481 1:132 1:453 fMd5.00 69 9 75 76 87 68 Lopez K LB 123   21.95 80-4 10 26Nov10-1BEU fst 1   :24 :49 1:143 1:41 fMdSpWt5.80 55 8 108 1011 1012 1020 Adam M G   119   32.70 60-14 10 Works: 13Dec11 PHA 6f fst 1:14 H 33/49 3Aug11 PHA 6f fst 1:142 H 9/12 24Jul11 PHA 6f fst 1:141 H 30/44 11Apr11 PHA 6f(T) fm 1:133 H 11/14   5 Pussy Willow   Owner:   Sarah Stables 2012:   (165 30 .18) Jockey:   Whitney D G 2012:   (577 81 .14) B. m. 5 (Jan) 117   Sire: Pointman $3.00   Dam: Babys Got Back(1)   Br: Sarah Stables (La) 3 LIFE 13 3 3 1 107.96 90 2012 1 0 0 0 0.00 87 2011 5 1 1 1 40.72 93 WET 1 1 0 0 0.00 66 TURF 6 3 2 0 83.00 87 LONG 5 1 2 0 42.00 87 5Jan12-5FG fm 5 1/2f T :214 :45 :57 1:031 4+fOClm40/N0X/N3X-N 88 8 21/2 84 84 84 Graham J   119   4.80 87-12 8   Rc 97.3/99.6/83.4                                                   93.4/95(188.4)                     H 97.9/89.2   25.2CL 10Dec11-1FG fst 6f   :214 :443 :563 1:091 3+fOClm25/N0X/N3X-N 95 2 31 31/4 41 43 Albarado R J   119   2.40 97-6 6 18Sep11-2BEL fst 7f   :231 :454 1:093 1:231 3+fAlw60.00 94 1 31/2 2hd 31/2 31 Desormeaux K J   120   26.65 90-8 5 11Jun11-1LAD fm 5f T :22 :45   :57 3+fOClm20/N3X-N 97 1 2no 11   13 Shepherd J   121   0.80 98-9 4 16Apr11-4GP fst 1   :231 :464 1:103 1:354 4+fOClm62.5/N3X-N 98 1 11/2 11/2 1nk 41 Baird E T   120   2.80 90-10 5 6Jan11-5FG fst 1   :233 :472 1:114 1:364 4+fAlw49.00N2X 97 6 43/4 2nk 2no 21 Albarado R J   119   1.65 92-16 6 Works: 29Jan12 FG 5f fst :583 H 4/16 28Dec11 FG 7f(T) fm 1:221 H 3/393 23Nov11 FG 5f fst :582 H 5/427 15Nov11 PHA 6f(T) fm 1:111 H 5/18   6 Biggest Loser Owner:   Maletto 2012:   (205 16 .08) Jockey:   Chaves M 2012:   (253 24 .09) Gr. f. 4 (Mar) L 117   Sire: King Coupe   Dam: Cafe Ole   Br: Maletto (Pa*) 5 LIFE 10 1 2 1 23.70 76 2012 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 2011 7 0 2 0 13.92 77 WET 3 0 1 0 6.40 69 TURF 6 0 2 1 12.80 78 LONG 4 1 0 0 9.78 71 Rc 91.3/91.7/85.3                                                  89.4/82(171.4)                H 85.0/83.1    24.6 CL (t) 7Oct11-5BEL fm 6f T :222 :452 :571 1:091 fOClm50/N2X 82 7 77 76 78 710 Nakatani C S L 120   5.55 86-9 7 10Jun11-20MNR fm 1 3/8 T :481 1:132 1:383 2:164 3+fClm15.00(20-15) --- 1 912 910 96 86 Pereira O M L 110   3.30 75-11 9 14May11-1PEN sft 5f T :232 :483   1:012 fAlw32.00N2L 82 5 41 43/4   22 Vega H L 116   4.20 73-25 5 Rc  98.3/91.0/78.0                                                 94.7/81(175.7)                H 90.4/83.7     34.0 CL 5Apr11-7PHA mdy 6 1/2f   :232 :481 1:143 1:212 fAlw47.00N1X 81 2 76 63 73 64 Arroyo A S L 116   4.60 64-23 7 15Mar11-1PEN fm 5f T :22 :461   :582 fAlw32.00N2L 88 4 55 52   22 Belmonte L A L 116   2.85 88-10 5 16Feb11-4CT fst 7f   :231 :463 1:111 1:242 fAlw28.00N2L 88 6 76 75 51 42 Ramirez Erick   114   5.20 87-14 7 Works: 5Feb12 PEN 7f fst 1:282 H 36/130 21Jan12 PEN 5f fst 1:01 H 53/183 6Jan12 PEN 4f(T) fm :481 H 63/240 25Dec11 PEN 4f fst :482 H 45/135   8 Mellon Pie Owner:   Tacaro Farm 2012:   (275 21 .08) Jockey:   Giles F 2012:   (38 7 .18) Gr. f. 4 (Feb) Lb 117   Sire: Thornton Mellon $5.00   Dam: Flame Tosser(1)   Br: Pan Farms ( Cal*) 3 LIFE 15 2 2 5 14.36 76 2012 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 2011 9 1 2 4 4.14 76 WET 4 1 2 1 3.74 69 TURF 3 0 1 2 0.00 86 LONG 3 1 1 1 7.34 58 Rc No data 22Oct11-21MNR gd 7f T :23 :454 1:101 1:231 3+fAlw0.00N2L --- 5 32 32 23 25 Ramirez E   112 bs 5.80 82-16 8 2Oct11-13MNR sly 5f   :224 :481   1:02 3+fClm7.50(10-7.5) --- 1 52 42   31 Ramgeet A R L 111 b 7.05 77-40 6 10Sep11-19MNR fm 4 1/2f T :223 :462   :521 3+fClm7.50(10-7.5) --- 5 21 32   34 Tolentino P L 111 b 3.25 89-11 5 22Aug11-13MNR fst 6f   :221 :452 :58 1:11 fClm15.00(20-15) --- 10 95 97 98 810 Davila J M   114 s 6.75 85-16 10 1Aug11-12MNR fst 1   :241 :484 1:133 1:401 fClm25.00(30-25)N3L --- 5 11/2 11/2 1nk 31 Oro E   114 s 2.05 75-14 5 16Jul11-17MNR fm 5f T :23 :464   :591 fClm7.50(10-7.5)N3L --- 1 21/2 1nk   33/4 Houghton T D   113 bs 69.15 87-17 7 Works: 7Feb12 PEN 5f fst 1:004 H 14/28 10Jan12 PEN 5f fst 1:01 H 11/30 8Jan12 LRL 6f fst 1:142 H 3/3 30Nov11 MNR 6f fst 1:134 H 8/25     Copyright © 2003-2012 HorseRacingPark.com, All Rights Reserved     The races in the past performances that are highlighted are the main races I used in handicapping. The race was a good one to study the race engine because it presented a field with clearly two speed horses of pretty much equal skill,. It also has two others, Sweet Treat and Mellon Pie who are also speed but not as quick as the top two. It featured no strong closers in the race though Biggest Loser and Rosa Bianca displayed they can make up ground. The biggest thing was who between Street Gossip and Pussy Willow would get the lead? Or would they go head to head in a speed duel setting up a possible major upset? Or would it be possible for them to finish one two? How does the race engine handle this? In race pace which is the first set of numbers. For Pussy Willow the race pace she came out of was Rc: 97.3/99.6/83.4 (this is the pace based upon the leader, all horses in that race come out of same pace). These numbers represent the figures of the first two calls , the third number is the final fraction. The AverageRcPace is in red which is the next set of numbers 93.4. The 93.4  95 is the AvgRcPc and the Speed figure the number (188.4) is the combination of pace and speed used as a quick reference guide. The final set of numbers H97.9 89.2 is the horses pace. It is calculated the same as the average pace how ever it takes into account the lengths off at each call. The first number 97.9 is the average of the first two calls. The second number 89.2 is the average of the first two calls and the final horses fraction divided by two. This gives you a late pace or sustainability to last.   This is the method to find out if the race engine is working. By the way how is pace established? Well you could use raw numbers or fractions to give you pace. However to be more accurate you should use the variant to adjust those fractions. How is that done, you need to establish want percent of the variant is needed at each race call. This is a very simple math. To get true race pace the formula is: The Race Fraction Rf times the Variant V divided by the final time FT:          Rf x V divided by FT This will give you a percentage of the variant to add or subtract at each race call. In this way you have a figure at every call. You know what the horse is running thus you establish pace. Back to the race, Pussy Willow comes from a race with the Average pace was a 93.4 while Street Gossip comes out of a race with a 93.1 Avg pace.  Virtually even, same with their SRF speed figures 95 and 96 so again little separation. Look to the Horse pace: Pussy Willow has a 97.9 with a LP sustain of 89.2 Street Gossip has a 96.8 with a LP sustain of 89.9 So once again hard to separate.   The other speed in the race Sweet Treat Avg RcPc 93.2 is comparable to the top two however it is establish in a 5.5f race. Sweet Treat SRF figure is just an 89 off of that pace which is well below the top two. Horse pace: Sweet Treat has a 93.2 with a LP sustain of 89.6, her Hp is below the top two her LP is OK but she did not have to run as fast early or as long. She will have to run against the top two which will compromise her. The only other speed is Mellon Pie in which we did not have any data because she was racing at MNR. In those races she was in cheap company, outside post she was tossed. This brings us to stalkers or closers. The only two that fell into that category were Rosa Bianca and Biggest Loser. Neither one based on speed figures are close to the top two. Rosa Bianca has a 89 SRF while Biggest Loser has a 82 SRF. Rosa Bianca has an edge in class run in ALW company. Biggest Loser just doesn’t look fast enough with speed figures in the low 80s. Rosa did finish with a 89 in her last at 1m70yds she has potential for a trifecta position. Based on RL world racing what is the race scenario? You have two speed horses so one or two things can happen either one establishes a clear lead thus killing any of the other speed in the race. Or do the top two get into a speed duel killing each other and setting it up for a horse that does not figure to win but takes advantage of what transpired in the early part of the race? If the race engine is working properly it should handle both cases. If one establishes the lead it should win, if they duel they should falter and the race will be won in a time that may be slower than if one of them went out and won freely.   RESULTS:   Race #28 22:40 6 Furlongs Dirt Allowance Purse $0.00 Filly & Mare 4 Year Olds And Up.     ##   Horse Name Owner Name Jockey Odds   Fin Time SRF 5   Pussy Willow Sarah Stables Whitney D G 1.20   12 1:10.72 --- 3   Rosa Bianca Maletto Santiago Javier 11.05   23 1:11.26 --- 2   Street Gossip Sunny J Farm Diaz V 19.85   33 1:12.01 --- 1   Sweet Treat Choppy Inc. Potts C L 4.70   41 1:12.70 --- 6   Biggest Loser Maletto Chaves M 5.25   51/2 1:12.92 --- 8   Mellon Pie Tacaro Farm Giles F 3.55   62 1:13.04 --- 4   Musette Jpe Stable Baez J 22.60   7 1:13.57 --- Track: Fast Time: :222 :452 :573 1:103 $2 Mutuel Prices: 5 - Pussy Willow 4.40 4.10 3.00 3 - Rosa Bianca   8.00 5.10 2 - Street Gossip     11.00 $1 Exacta: 5 - 3 Paid 18.00 $1 Trifecta: 5 - 3 - 2 Paid 94.60 Scratched: One Sovereign Nation Claimed: None     Pussy Willow broke alertly clearly established an early lead, was in cruise control in the middle part of the race and kicked on in the stretch. While on the other hand Street Gossip lost her chance in the first furlong. The scenario that occurred was one establishes a clear lead thus killing the other speed in the race. None of the other front runners or speed should have been able to come from their position and win in the way the race unfolded. Rosa Bianca closed some ground late picking up the pieces though no threat to the winner and demonstrates why horses with lesser figures can take advantage of a race scenario.  This is but one race, a good one at that to judge the race engine because the field comprised of horses from pay tracks. It displays that the race engine seems to be working quite well. This is why we remain cautiously optimistic.   Players will I believe have to now thoroughly go over their competition. You will have to figure what you believe the race scenario could be and based your decisions on that. It will require skill theres no doubt. This is a change and one that all of us will have to adapt. Tomorrow begins a new era.