GG race #4 on Thursday Feb 16^th was a great race to examine the Race Engine and see how it is working. The field consisted of only four horses contesting at 1mile on the dirt for a claiming price of $12.500

Hail to the Thief was the 2 to 5 morning line favorite and just looking at his SRF speed figure (96) alone he deserved to be the odds on favorite. In his last five starts he finished  second in three races and won the other two. From the handicapping angle we talked about Plus 4s in this column over the last couple of weeks (Plus 4 meaning a horse has performed 4pts/lengths above his class), his 96 and the step back down to claiming actually made him a Plus horse. So yet another reason to understand his odds.

He looks to be the horse to beat.

In the race, of the other three contenders only one horse has run a 90 SRF figure at a mile or more on the dirt and that is Silvertailed Shama having run that back in September. Boston Red Sox won a route race last June at RD with a 85 SRF figure. In his lone start this year was well beaten in the mud at PEN in a 12f event.

The final horse in the field is Western General a horse who is trying the distance for the first time. His figures for the sprints have been in the 80s, he did produce a 91 SRF at 7f on the turf last November.

See past performances for the field below:

2/16/2012   16:45   2/15/2012 3:00   GG   Race #4   1m   Dirt   Claiming   Purse $12.00 For Four Year Olds And Upward. Nomination Fee $1.70 to start. Additional Requirements: Have won less than 4 races.   Four-year-olds 122 lbs. Older 123 lbs. Claiming Price $12.50, if for $10.50, allowed 2 lbs.   1 Hail To The Thief   Owner:   Ringleader 2012:   (56 6 .11) Jockey:   Alvarado F T 2012:   (127 24 .19) B. g. 4 (Feb) L 120   Sire: Ok Computer   Dam: Shock And Horror   Br: Ringleader (AZ) 2/5 LIFE 14 3 4 2 63.33 80 2012 1 1 0 0 8.97 94 2011 9 2 3 0 39.76 81 WET 1 0 0 0 0.80 44 TURF 2 0 0 0 1.26 83 LONG 9 3 4 0 52.13 80 RcP 89.9/91.9/79.1                                                                   87.0/96            Hp 90.6/84.9 10Jan12-7TUP fst 1   :23 :464 1:104 1:362 4+Alw13.00N1X 96 1 21/2 2nk 31/4 1hd Corbett G W L 117   6.65 94-11 10 27Nov11-10TUP fst 1   :233 :473 1:113 1:372 Alw22.40N1X 96 2 23/4 31/2 2nk 21/4 Piermarini T L 117   2.35 89-12 6 25Oct11-1FL fst 170   :231 :464 1:11 1:403 3+Clm18.00(20-18) 93 1 2nk 2nk 2nk 21 Rodriguez P A L 113   7.20 92-7 9 16Sep11-4FL fst 170   :231 :472 1:12 1:42 3+Alw17.00N1X 91 2 41 51 3hd 2no Rodriguez P A L 118   *4.35 86-10 8 12Aug11-2FL fst 170   :232 :471 1:113 1:412 Alw17.00N1X 90 5 13/4 11 1no 13/4 Rodriguez P A L 116   11.30 89-14 5 10Jul11-8FE fm 7f T :23 :462 1:102 1:224 Alw19.20N2L 85 4 64 53 63 74 Simard R E L 117   28.00 86-9 7 Works: 10Feb12 GG 5f fst :593 H 5/19 2Jan12 TUP 5f fst :593 H 9/27 19Nov11 TUP 6f fst 1:122 H 2/13 10Nov11 TUP 5f fst :593 H 8/29   2 Boston Red Sox   Owner:   Tacaro Farm 2012:   (288 22 .08) Jockey:   Hernandez J J 2012:   (135 32 .24) B. g. 6 (Feb) s 121   Sire: HRP-Boston Harbor   Dam: HRP-Vicaress   Br: Blushing Meadows ( Cal) 50 LIFE 15 3 1 2 9.53 80 2012 1 0 0 0 0.00 79 2011 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 WET 2 0 0 1 0.61 81 TURF 6 0 0 0 0.60 76 LONG 7 2 1 0 6.06 79 RcP 84.4/80.3/79.7                                                                    81.0/85           Hp 82.1/80.9 12Jan12-42PEN mdy 1 1/2   :503 1:171 2:11 2:391 4+Clm5.00 --- 10 89 79 514 412 Arroyo A S   117 s 34.80 79-22 10 Sold on 1/1/2012 by Shark Stable for $1.00 14Jun10-8RD fst 1 1/16   :234 :481 1:133 1:462 3+Clm8.00 85 1 31/2 11/4 2no 11/2 Paucar E   120 s 16.90 88-14 5 28May10-10RD fst 1   :234 :481 1:132 1:392 3+Clm3.50N3L 88 3 51 41 3nk 21 Paucar E   120 s 9.80 87-13 10 4May10-7RD fst 1   :241 :49 1:141 1:402 3+Clm4.00 84 6 21/2 2nk 1no 11 Paucar E   120 s 41.25 83-16 9 17Apr10-6BEU fst 6f   :23 :47 :593 1:124 3+Clm3.50 81 7 62 73 74 64 Paucar E   122 s 14.15 82-15 10 29Mar10-3BEU fst 5 1/2f   :23 :474 1:002 1:062 3+Clm3.50N2L 80 1 31 1no 41/2 33 Paucar E   122 s *3.20 88-12 9 Works: 11Feb12 TUP 6f fst 1:15 H 14/25 1Feb12 TUP 1(T) fm 1:411 H 9/10 6Jan12 PEN 7f fst 1:283 H 3/3 7Jun10 RD 5f fst 1:02 B 9/26   3 Silvertailed Shama   Owner:   Night Rider Stables 2012:   (183 30 .16) Jockey:   Baze R A 2012:   (141 44 .31) Gr. g. 4 (Feb) 120   Sire: HRP-Abdos   Dam: HRP-Shama   Br: The Freakshow (La) 7/2 LIFE 13 3 1 1 62.24 85 2012 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 2011 8 0 0 1 6.14 85 WET 1 0 0 1 2.02 67 TURF 7 0 1 1 11.74 84 LONG 3 0 0 1 2.02 82 RcP 86.8/87.8/82.2                                                                   85.6/90            Hp 82.3/82.3 26Oct11-2HAW yld 1 1/8 T :482 1:133 1:39 1:512 3+Clm10.00N4L 88 2 86 52 3nk 32 Geroux F   118   20.45 67-19 10 16Sep11-6LAD fst 1 1/16   :231 :47 1:11 1:424 Clm17.50 90 4 75 75 76 75 Sellers S J   119   24.80 89-8 7 30Jul11-4SAR fm 1 1/16 t :23 :47 1:101 1:401 Clm40.00(50-40) 92 7 107 107 96 97 Maragh R   117   264.70 90-3 10 Claimed from The Freakshow for $15.00 30Jun11-2LS fst 6f   :22 :451 :574 1:104 Clm15.00 85 2 67 65 64 53 Berry M C   116   48.00 87-10 6 14May11-7CRC fm 5f T :221 :451   :57 3+OClm16/N2X-N 89 7 74 75   77 Sanchez Jef   114   10.55 91-4 8 10Apr11-5SA fm 6 1/2f T :22 :442 1:082 1:143 OClm62.5/N3X 89 1 53 53 41 41 Talamo J   118   4.00 84-14 5 Works: 12Feb12 GG 6f fst 1:12 H 5/11 12Jan12 AQU 5f gd 1:011 B 2/6 23Oct11 HAW 3f(T) fm :35 H 1/1 13Sep11 LAD 5f fst 1:00 H 6/23   4 Western General   Owner:   Newmo40 2012:   (173 22 .13) Jockey:   Gryder A T 2012:   (122 15 .12) B. g. 6 (Apr) LBs 121   Sire: HRP-Nasrullah   Dam: HRP-Simons Shoes   Br: Blushing Meadows (WV) 5/2 LIFE 12 1 5 1 20.85 87 2012 1 0 1 0 2.00 91 2011 5 0 3 1 7.51 91 WET 3 0 1 0 0.94 81 TURF 5 0 3 1 8.91 91 LONG 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 RcP 92.7/91.7/80.6                                                                     88.2/86          Hp 92.1/85.8 28Jan12-1TP fst 6f   :222 :453 :574 1:102 4+Clm7.00(8-7) 86 4 11 1hd 1hd 21 Prescott R A LB 117 s *1.40 91-4 4 19Dec11-4BEU gd 5 1/2f   :223 :464 :592 1:06 3+Clm6.25 84 2 21/2 1no 2nk 21 Hernandez R M LB 120 s 2.65 90-16 5 26Nov11-6TUP fm 5f T :213 :444   :564 3+Clm6.25 88 9 33/4 21   33 Bridges K M LB 119 s 19.60 96-5 9 7Nov11-1MNR fm 7f T :23 :454 1:091 1:214 3+Clm8.00(10-8) 91 8 11/2 1nk 1nk 21/4 Allen R D Jr LB 115 s 88.90 93-9 9 12Oct11-1FL mdy 5f   :221 :464   1:00 3+Clm8.00 87 2 11/4 1nk   53 Carr D B 120 s 13.30 83-14 6 Auctioned on 9/21/2011 by The Altair Syndicate for $1.37 17Jan11-5TUP fm 5f T :221 :46   :581 4+Clm10.00N3L 90 5 11/4 13/4   21 Vergara D P B 119 s 6.15 93-17 10 Works: 8Dec11 PHA 5f fst :59 H 2/7 1Oct11 RIL 5f fst 1:00 B 1/5 13Apr11 TUP 1(T) fm 1:372 H 1/3 12Feb11 TUP 5f fst 1:00 H 2/24

As you can see I have highlighted the races that I used to handicap the race. This is simplified handicapping basically only using one race per horse to make it easy for everyone to follow.

We all can clearly see what Hail to the Thief  has accomplished. His last two starts have produced the highest SRF figures in the race. He is a horse that likes to be on or very near the lead. He is a speed horse and based on his running style and coming from the inside post you would expect him on or near the lead. If you look at the set of numbers RcP 89.9 91.9 79.1 that is the Race pace fractional call. The figures display the first two fractions of the race were run fast with the second call being a 91.9 He is just a neck off that pace.

Now can anyone challenge him? We look at Boston Red Sox first and see his Race pace figures are 84.4 80.3 79.7 so clearly he is coming from a slower paced race. The final closing pace fraction (79.7) is comparable to Hail to the Thiefs (79.1) race but the earlier fractions are much slower than the top horse, if he runs as fast as the fractions in Hail to the Thiefs race he will falter and his final fraction will be much slower. That combined with his SRF figure of 85 he just seems too slow to challenge Hail to the Thief.

Silvertailed Shama had not raced on the dirt since September. In that race he ran even around the track . He stayed in last place never more than five or six lengths from the leader the entire race while earning a 90 SRF speed figure. His RcP figures are 86.8 87.8 82.2 which is not as quick of a pace as the favorite but is better than Boston Red Soxs race pace figures. Also what is not obvious his Silvertailed Shamas closing move. If you look at his time from the half mile to the finish you will see he covered that in 55.8 seconds which is very good and meets minimal criteria for closing moves (55.8 and under at LAD for 8.5f dirt). He also displayed good closing time in the previous turf race on July 30^th where he moved from the half mile to the finish in a time of :53.2 which is very good and meets criteria ( 54 and under at SAR for the distance)  However to have a chance he will need someone to run with the top horse because if not he will have an extremely hard time catching him based on speed figures alone.

Western General is a sprinter trying the route for the first time. He is a speed horse and a front runner who could challenge Hail to the Thief. He can challenge but if so it is questionable if he can win at two turns. His speed figures are only in the 80s. But his early pace figures are strong. In his last start his RcP was 92.7 91.4 80.6 which displays he has lots of speed. His running style dictates that he will likely go for the lead or at least try to.

Before we get to the race scenario heres a quick breakdown of the figures, this also includes Horse Pace figures (different from race pace) which takes into account beaten lengths at each call and closing fraction move. Hp the first figure is the horses average pace of the first two calls(EP). His second number is the EP plus the final fraction closing figure added and averaged giving you sustainability.

Horse                     Race Pace                     Avg Race Pc/SRF       Horse Pace

Hail to the Thief      RcP 89.9/91.9/79.1      AvPc87.0/96        Hp 90.6/84.9

Boston Red Sox     RcP 84.4/80.3/79.7      AvPc81.0/85        Hp 82.1/80.9

Silvertailed Shama RcP 86.8/87.8/82.2      AvPc85.6/90        Hp 82.3/82.3

Western General     RcP 92.7/91.7/80.6     AvPc88.2/86        Hp 92.1/85.8 (sprint)

Race Scenario - Race Engine Test

This is the race scenario and the test of the new race engine. We have two speed horses in the race. Only one is proven going two turns. With the likelihood of the sprinter Western General going to the front or at least trying to can Hail to the Thief  have enough to put away the sprinter and overcome any late challenges? Hail to the Thief has to be up close to the lead, its his running style, so does Western General. This makes it interesting to see how the race engine handles it. How true to RL racing can it come. If they do hook up as likely they will then of the other two who has the opportunity to capitalized on a speed duel. The only horse would be Silvertailed Shama as he is the only one who has displayed any closing moves. His speed figure is only a 90 route so he needs a speed duel to happen otherwise he cannot overcome the likely pace if Hail to the Thief gets an easy lead. Boston Red Sox with his style of being close or stalking his figures are just not strong enough to win he will likely falter once the two speedsters setup the pace.

The Results:

Race #4 16:45 1 Mile Dirt Claiming Purse $12.00 Open 4 Year Olds And Up.

##		Horse Name	Owner Name	Jockey	Odds		Fin	Time	SRF
3		Silvertailed Shama	Night Rider Stables	Baze R A	3.80		1no	1:37.03
1		Hail To The Thief	Ringleader	Alvarado F T	0.45		22	1:37.04
4		Western General	Newmo40	Gryder A T	2.70		312	1:37.47
2		Boston Red Sox	Tacaro Farm	Hernandez J J	53.75		4	1:39.93

Track: Fast
Time: :23³ :47¹ 1:11¹ 1:37

$2 Mutuel Prices:

3 - Silvertailed Shama	9.60	2.60
1 - Hail To The Thief		2.20

$1 Exacta: 3 - 1 Paid 3.40

Scratched: None

As expected Hail to the Thief from the inside post went to the lead to be challenged from the outside by Western General. Those two would battle for three quarters of a mile. Western General pushed the favorite hard even putting a nose in front a couple of times. But as expected eventually Hail to the Thief put the sprinter away however the early pace scenario took its toll as Silvertailed Shame began catching up to the leader. Hail to the thief despite the early duel put up a gallant fight to the wire and just missed by a nose right at the wire. Matter of fact it was only 0:01 seconds that separated the top two at the wire.

It is a perfect test of the race engine. What transpired was exactly the way you see real races run. The favorite did what he was supposed to and put the sprinter away, the pace took  its toll on him and he still almost pulled out the win. Silvertailed Shama got what he needed in order to win, a good speed duel, without it he probably would have been second a couple of lengths back. Boston Red Sox did what he figured and succumbed to the early pace that he could not possibly hold up to. The sprinter Western General gave it his all in a distance that was not his liking and absent Hail to the Thief he may have been able to pull out a win on the lead.

So the race engine did extremely well in this race. Though it was only a four horse field it displayed what real racing is. For everyone this is what we want in racing here at HRP and we should all be pleased.